Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, 79, returned to politics this week by registering to run for mayor in Davao City, his family’s home base. There is little doubt that the Dutertes and Marcos families, the most powerful politicians in the country, are gearing up for an epic struggle for power.
For Dutertes, it could be a fight for survival. Rodrigo Duterte faces an investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity over his brutal drug war, and his family needs political influence and powerful friends.
Next year’s midterm elections will be a broader test of the family’s legitimacy, with thousands of local and city seats, 317 Congressional seats and, importantly, 12 Senate seats up for grabs. . They face a challenge in their home base of Davao from an emerging dynasty that analysts say poses the most serious threat to their power in Davao in two decades, and on the national stage Ferdinand Marcos. They are fighting against the formidable resources and machinery of the Junior President.
For Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., next year’s midterm elections will be crucial if he is to consolidate his accomplishments before the end of his six-year term.
Both families are already focused on the 2028 presidential election, and the vote could have a major impact on the country’s foreign policy, which has become more closely aligned with the United States under Marcos Jr. Washington’s relationship with China is just one of many issues on which Marcos Jr. and his predecessor differ.
A false sense of unity
Just a few years ago, Marcos and Duterte were supposed to be allies. Marcos Jr. ran a joint election campaign with Sara Duterte, the former president’s daughter and current vice president, and won a landslide victory in 2022.
However, her father, who remained highly popular even after her term ended, was always dissatisfied with her decision to ally with the Marcos family rather than seek the top position himself.
The apparent unification did not last long. Criticism and various abusive language erupted many times. A year after the alliance was signed, Sara Duterte in a cryptic remark referred to Marcos Jr.’s cousin and House Speaker Martin Romualdez as a “tambalos los” (a Visayan mythical figure known for his enlarged mouth and gigantic mouth). It attracted attention as it seemed to be called a living thing. Genitalia are notorious for confusing people. Insults and criticism mounted. In expletive-filled comments earlier this year, President Rodrigo Duterte accused his successor Marcos Jr. of being a drug addict and of trying to remove constitutional term limits to help his family cling to power. .
By June, Sara Duterte had resigned as education minister. She has since criticized Marcos Jr.’s response to the floods in her hometown of Davao, as well as the way she searched for Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, who is currently being held on child abuse and human trafficking charges, saying police “performed terrible abuse.” said. The vice president appeared to address Quiboloy’s supporters during the police raid and apologized for campaigning for Marcos Jr. in the past.
Quiboloy, an ally of Rodrigo Duterte and a politically influential religious leader whose sect claims millions of followers, also ran a Senate election this week despite serving a prison sentence. I have registered to run for.
President Dutertes wants his allies to secure as many seats as possible in the influential Senate, where 12 of the 24 seats are up for grabs. Their presence may provide some protection against legal threats such as the ICC.
“(They) could say that if they allow him to be arrested, they won’t have my vote for the major legislation they want to pass,” said Aries Algay, visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. he said.
Marcos Jr. previously said he would not cooperate with the ICC’s investigation into Duterte’s drug crackdown, which is estimated to have killed between 12,000 and 30,000 civilians.
Maria Ella L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said there is a growing possibility that Mr. Marcos Jr. will change his position.
“It’s clear that there is no unity anymore,” she says. For Marcos Jr., cooperating with the ICC could be risky, he added, but this “depends on how the public views Mr. Duterte and whether Mr. Duterte remains relevant and popular.” Ta.
Sara Duterte’s approval ratings and trust ratings have declined in recent months following her resignation from the Marcos Jr. cabinet, but she still maintains higher scores than the president, especially in Mindanao. .
In any case, analysts warn that even in their own strongholds, they cannot be complacent. This week, a candidate from a rival dynasty, the Nograles family, registered a candidacy against Rodrigo Duterte in the mayoral race, while another family also registered a candidacy against his son Paolo Duterte, who is seeking re-election to Congress. Algay said this is the first time in 20 years that President Dutertes will face a leading candidate in Davao.
“They can take on serious challenges. And if the Marcos Jr. government really funnels resources through money politics, no bailiwick can escape from that,” Argay said.
If successful, he added, the Marcos family could “further isolate Sara Duterte, to the point where she becomes the only Duterte holding political office.”
