Shares of Community Health Systems (NYSE:CYH) have fallen significantly in the week since the company released its third quarter report, dropping 33% to $3.99. Overall the results were pretty bad. Sales were in line with expectations at $3.1 billion, but statutory losses soared to $2.95 per share. The analysts have updated their earnings models following these results, but it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a big change to the company’s outlook, or if it’s business as usual. So we’ve gathered the latest post-earnings statutory consensus forecasts to see what’s in store for next year.
See the latest analysis on local health systems.
Profit and revenue growth
Taking into account the latest results, Community Health Systems’ 7 analysts now expect revenues in 2025 to be US$12.8b, about the same as the previous twelve months. Statutory losses per share are expected to sharply rise to US$0.29 per share. However, before the latest results, analysts had been forecasting revenue of US$13.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2025. Revise your revenue forecast and lower your revenue outlook from a profit to a loss.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of $5.26, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite the lower earnings per share estimate. It may also be useful to examine the range of analysts’ estimates to assess how different the outlier’s opinion is from the average. Currently, the most bullish analyst values the Community Health System stock at $6.00 per share, while the most bearish values it at $4.80. A narrow spread of estimates can suggest that the business’ prospects are relatively easy to assess, or that the analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture here, one way to understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to past performance and industry growth forecasts. It’s also worth noting that the long-term decline in earnings has come to an end and is expected to remain flat until the end of 2025. Historically, community health system revenues have declined by approximately 0.3% each year over the past five years. Comparing this to analyst forecasts for the industry as a whole, industry revenue is expected to grow by 6.7% per year (in total). Therefore, it is clear that although revenues are improving, the growth of community health systems is still expected to be slower than the industry.
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The biggest negative for us is that the regional health system’s outlook for next year has dropped from a profit to a deficit. On the downside, the company has also lowered its earnings forecast, with some forecasts suggesting it will do worse than the industry as a whole. There was no actual change to the consensus target price, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not changed significantly at the latest estimate.
That said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is far more important than next year. Forecasts out to 2026 from multiple regional health system analysts are available for free on our platform here.
However, you should always think about the risks. Case in point, we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Local Health System you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodologies, and articles are not intended to be financial advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. We aim to provide long-term, focused analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest announcements or qualitative material from price-sensitive companies. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
