Big 12 Conference play has arrived for the Texas Tech football team, and the Red Raiders will find themselves in a tough battle against a resurgent Arizona State team.
The Sun Devils (3-0) have already tied their win total for all of 2023 and will be looking to prove it was no fluke, while the Red Raiders (2-1) will also be looking to build on last week’s win over North Texas on Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium (2:30 p.m. on FS1).
While it can be hard to analyze a matchup between conference rivals, one old, one new, as a team like Arizona State could move from championship contender to championship favorite status at this stage of the season, there is still only a sample size of three games for each team, and it’s hard to say for sure whether the Red Raiders or Sun Devils had the tougher non-conference games.
Here I will analyze those points and discuss the chances of both Texas Tech and Arizona State winning.
When Texas Tech football runs the ball
The Red Raiders had success with the run against North Texas, which translated into good play through the air. They’ll be hoping for the same against the Sun Devils, but Arizona State has been pretty stingy in that department. They’re allowing 65 yards per game on the ground, and 64 yards combined against Wyoming and Mississippi State (who are a combined 1-5 and averaged about 150 yards on the ground, so how you take that is up to you). Either way, Taj Brooks will get the carries against the Sun Devils. He needs 905 more yards to become Texas Tech’s all-time leading rusher. Freshmen Cameron Dickey and Jacoby Williams will also help give the Sun Devils a different look.
Advantage: Arizona State University
More: Texas Tech football running back misses year with knee injury
When the Arizona State football team runs the ball
Here’s the most complicated part of analyzing this game. Arizona State has a bowling-ball running back in Cam Scattebo (5’11, 215 lbs.), who burst into the spotlight a few weeks ago with a 33-carry, 262-yard performance against Mississippi State. But Scattebo (pronounced scat-a-boo) only had 103 yards on 35 carries in the other two games (Texas State has a pretty strong run defense, but still). And the running backs weren’t the problem early on for Texas Tech’s defense. Washington State rushed for 301 yards against Tech, 197 of which came from quarterback John Mattiher. Plus, the Red Raiders allowed just 3.74 yards per carry to running backs. But you can’t completely ignore the quarterback’s yardage against ASU. ASU has a quarterback in Sam Leavitt who is willing to tuck and run, so containing Leavitt may be a bigger focus for Tech, but it will trickle down to the rest of the defensive plan.
Advantage: Texas Tech University
When the Texas Tech football team passes the ball
A big problem for ASU’s defense is the pass defense, and that’s where Behren Morton can step in. Morton is the nation’s leading passer in yards through three games (974 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions) and has also managed to avoid sacks (one in each of the first three games). Washington State made him uneasy in the pocket, but Morton was at his best in games with Brooks in the backfield with him. Josh Kelly remains his favorite target (21 catches, 287 yards, two touchdowns), but Morton has distributed the ball to more targets. ASU has recorded six sacks this year, half of which were by lineman Clayton Smith, and three interceptions, two of which came against Wyoming. Texas State and Mississippi State each had 268 passing yards against the Sun Devils.
Advantage: Texas Tech University
When the Arizona State football team passes the ball
Two things to watch here are how many passes Arizona State actually attempts in this game (14.3 per game so far) and what version of the Texas Tech secondary will emerge. The Red Raiders have made great strides in this department in recent weeks after the embarrassing 506-yard game against Abilene Christian. Over the past two games, Tech has managed four interceptions (two to Chapman Lewis) and held Washington State and North Texas to a combined 333 yards. To be fair, Matthias’ legs have done a lot of damage, so he hasn’t had to pass up the wazoo much. That may also be true for Arizona State’s Leavitt, who is averaging just over 50 yards per game on the ground. Leavitt has been pretty solid when it comes to passing, completing 43 of 72 passes for 573 total yards. His top target is Jordyn Tyson (12 catches, 172 yards), the younger brother of former Texas Tech basketball player Jaylon Tyson.
Advantage: Arizona State University
More: How Texas Tech football freshman Jacoby Williams took advantage of the Red Raiders’ dominating win
Texas Tech vs. Arizona State: Specialists
Arizona State punter Kanyon Floyd is averaging 42.8 yards per punt. Kicker Ian Hershey has made six of eight field goal attempts, including one for 47 yards. Gino Garcia and Reece Burkhart are still splitting kicking duties, but Garcia has made four of the school’s five field goal attempts. Neither has missed yet. Jack Burgess has done a good job filling in for Austin McNamara, averaging 44.4 yards per punt.
Advantage: Texas Tech University
Projected score: Texas Tech 31, Arizona State 28
Bottom line: The Red Razor defense will learn from the first two weeks and find a way to contain ASU’s running game and continue to have success in the secondary, which could result in lower scoring than expected.
