Former President Donald J. Trump appears to be benefiting from vote-splitting voters in Arizona, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday, highlighting Mr. Trump’s support among Latinos and young people as well as specific weaknesses among Republican Senate candidates.
The poll shows Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Trump aide Kali Lake by six percentage points, while Trump has a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the state.
Such a scenario would mean a more pronounced split in the vote, perpetuating a trend that surveys have shown throughout this election cycle: Democratic senatorial candidates in many battleground states, including Arizona and Nevada, have consistently outperformed the top candidates, especially when President Biden was the party’s standard-bearer. Harris’ nomination has made the race more competitive, narrowing the gap between her and lower-ranking Democrats, but that trend has persisted in most battleground state races.
“Donald Trump is creating his own weather and building a base like no one’s ever seen in our lifetimes, probably in Arizona,” said Stan Barnes, a former Republican state representative who now serves as a political consultant for the state. He noted that Trump has drawn support from young voters and people of color who have traditionally leaned Democratic in polls this year. “He’s breaking that rule, and it doesn’t affect the lesser candidates,” he said.
In 2022, Lake angered many traditional Republicans with a divisive gubernatorial race that pitted him against then-Governor Doug Ducey, a conservative Republican, and angered supporters of Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018, by saying his political rise “driving a stake through the heart of the McCain campaign.” Lake also alienated some Republicans by filing a series of lawsuits after his election loss, alleging the election was stolen.
This year, she changed tactics, trying to court the support of Arizona’s moderate Republicans, but old grudges die hard.
“McCain supporters in Arizona have not forgiven her for the way she handled John McCain,” Burns said. “Two years later, it seems to remain a phenomenon.”
Political analysts on both sides of the Senate race still expect it to be a close race, and Lake’s campaign has suggested that Trump’s strong showing in Arizona could give an advantage to all of the lower-ranked Republican candidates in the state.
“President Trump’s consistently strong lead in Arizona is evidence that Arizonans are tired and frustrated with the policies of Kamala Harris and Ruben Gallego,” Lake spokesman Alex Nicol said in a statement.
Of course, Trump has alienated many traditional Republicans in Arizona — including McCain himself in the 2016 election — but he has been strong with young voters and Latino voters, long reliable Democrats.
“Arizona voters are eager for a return to the prosperity and success policies of President Trump that have stabilized our state, and it’s no surprise to us that President Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the polls,” Trump campaign spokesman Harry Dobbins said in a statement.
If Arizonans value policies over personalities, that could pose a challenge for Harris: According to a new New York Times/Siena College poll, the issues Arizona voters say are most important are also the ones they most trust Trump to address.
Those who say they support both Trump and Gallego are significantly more likely to be Latino, lower-income and less college-educated, and are more likely to be tolerant of Trump in a broader sense.
The poll found that 21% of Arizona respondents ranked immigration, Trump’s signature issue, as the most important factor in their vote after the economy, higher than in Georgia (where 14% of respondents prioritized immigration after the economy and abortion) and North Carolina (where abortion and immigration were tied at 13%, behind the economy).
Arizona voters also said they thought Trump could handle immigration better than Harris by a 13-point margin, suggesting that Harris’ efforts to chip away at Trump’s perceived advantage on the issue have not been very effective.
Democratic election consultant Andy Barr suggested that while some voters may support Trump because he prioritizes policies, they may be less inclined to overlook familiar character flaws because the Senate race feels like a personality clash.
“I think the issue in the U.S. Senate is much more personal,” Burr said.
Meanwhile, Gallego, thanks to his Latino heritage and military veteran status, has drawn support from voters similar to those Trump is trying to attract, particularly Latino and younger voters.
A notable example of divided support is the Arizona State Police Association, whose president appeared on stage with Trump at a rally in August and gave an enthusiastic endorsement. A few days later, the association endorsed Gallego as well. (The next day, Gallego published a letter criticizing the Department of Justice investigation into the Phoenix Police Department, drawing backlash from some Arizona progressives, a reminder of how difficult it will be for him to navigate the political center.)
Both Harris and Gallego have big advertising advantages over their opponents, but Gallego’s advantage is more pronounced: Gallego’s campaign and allied groups spent or booked about $56 million on TV ads between July and Election Day, compared with about $19 million booked or spent by Lake and his allies, according to media tracking firm AdImpact. That’s a bigger margin than the $15 million TV ad advantage Harris has over Trump in Arizona (about $56 million to about $41 million).
Jacques Petit, a spokesman for Harris’ campaign, said in a statement that the vice presidential team has a strong presence on the ground, but added that “Harris is behind in this election and knows it will be close.”
Republicans have argued that the split they saw in polls over the spring and summer was unrealistic given rising partisanship and recent election results, and consultant Barr agreed: “Trump’s not going to win by 5 points, and Harris’s not going to win by 5 points,” he said.
Mario E. Diaz, a Democratic political strategist in Phoenix, suggested that polls have underestimated Ms. Harris’s support in Arizona, in part because she attracts groups that are less likely to be counted in surveys, such as members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, he argues.
“The state will fight back, but I don’t think the polls are reflecting that urgency right now,” Diaz said. “You’re seeing enthusiasm and concern from people who have traditionally voted Republican, for example, saying, ‘No way.'”
