Following a strong road win last week, No. 7 Miami will be looking to make a positive first impression in ACC play when they take on Virginia Tech at home in Week 5 college football action on Friday.
The Hurricanes had a close game early on in a road game against USF a week ago, but they came back to win, scoring 35 points, 50-15, and have led the team to sixth in the nation with a scoring attack averaging more than 52 points per game.
Cam Ward has been a tremendous addition to the offense, completing over 72% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions and throwing touchdown passes to eight receivers so far this season. The passing attack is averaging 405 yards per game, ranking second in the FBS.
Tech’s losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers put them a combined 10 points away from an unbeaten record, but over the past three seasons, they are 17-4 when allowing fewer than 24 points. When allowing more than that, the Hokies are 1-19.
What can we expect from this matchup? To that end, let’s use the SP+ prediction model to preview how Miami and Virginia Tech stack up in Week 5 college football games.
As expected, the simulation currently has the Hurricanes favored in the ACC opener.
SP+ projects Miami to beat Virginia Tech by a projected score of 38-19 and win by 18.8 points.
The model predicts that the Hurricanes have a high probability of winning outright, at 88 percent.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that seeks to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread for a win rate of 53.6%.
FanDuel Sportsbook projects Miami as a 19.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech, with the game total at 53.5 points.
FanDuel has the moneyline odds for Miami to win at -1000 and the moneyline odds for Virginia Tech to win at +700.
If you use this prediction to bet on a game, please keep the following in mind…
Other analytical models also show the Hurricanes as overwhelming favorites against the Hokies.
This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate the match 20,000 times and pick a winner.
The latest computer simulation of the game gave Miami a 90.1% chance of winning.
The remaining 9.9 percent of simulations then project Virginia Tech to win.
The model projects Miami to be 20.2 points better than Virginia Tech in that same field, which would be enough to cover the spread.
Plus… Miami vs. Virginia Tech Prediction: Analysis
According to FPI’s metrics, Miami ranks first among ACC teams with a 68.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff and is expected to win 11.2 games.
According to the model, Virginia Tech has a 0.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and will win 5.7 games.
Date and time: Friday, September 27th
Time: 7:30pm ET
Television: ESPN Networks
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Game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.
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