Virginia Tech lost its second non-conference game of the season last week, losing 26-23 after a disappointing first half. A lack of a passing game and a second straight slow start hurt the Hokies from the start.
ESPN uses the Football Power Index (FPI) as an advanced analytical model to help analyze matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words, “The FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. The ultimate goal of the FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but to correctly predict game and season outcomes. If Las Vegas were to publish a power ranking that they use to set lines, it would probably look very similar to the FPI.”
So, did the Hokies’ loss to Rutgers change how ESPN’s FPI views the rest of the season?
Game 5 at Miami: ESPN’s FPI projects Miami (2-3, 0-1) to have a 90.2% chance of winning.
This game is arguably the toughest on Virginia Tech’s schedule and the Hokies will have to work hard to have a chance to beat the Hurricanes. Miami is arguably the better team in this matchup.
Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia Tech to have a 51.8% chance of winning (3-3, 1-1)
FPI sees this game as a 50-50 split, which is especially true considering the Cardinal beat Syracuse in their ACC conference opener. As FPI says, this game could go either way for the Hokies, especially since they have to fly to California for an Atlantic Coast Conference conference game.
Game 7 vs. Boston College: ESPN’s FPI gives Boston College a 54.2% chance of winning (3-4, 1-2)
Boston College is another team on Virginia Tech’s schedule that is getting harder to beat each week. The Eagles have beaten Florida State and Michigan State and held their own against Missouri, so this game should definitely be exciting.
Game 8 vs. Georgia Tech: ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2) to win 51.7% of the time.
The battle for the true “Tech” school this year will undoubtedly be an exciting one. Both teams have dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks and have already lost two games on the season. There are big mountains to overcome for both teams and this game could have postseason implications for both teams.
Game 9 at Syracuse: ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia Tech (5-4, 3-2) to have a 55.4% chance of winning.
Earlier this year, this game seemed like too difficult a task for Virginia Tech to win, but now that Stanford has beaten Kyle McCord and the Orange, the game seems much more manageable.
Game 10 vs. Clemson: ESPN’s FPI projects Clemson to have a 70.1% chance of winning (5-5, 3-3)
This game is going to be tough for Virginia Tech, as Clemson swept ACC rival North Carolina State last week and Virginia Tech will have to get off to a very fast start to counter the Tigers’ offense.
Game 11 vs. Duke: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 53.5% chance of winning (6-5, 4-3)
Virginia Tech is in a bowl game! This win from FPI predicts the Hokies will go to a bowl game. This was the preseason expectation for the Hokies and more. Duke has some growing pains offensively, but 4-0 is 4-0.
Game 12 vs. Virginia: ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia Tech to have a 65.0% chance of winning (7-5, 5-3)
Virginia Tech has dominated the University of Virginia in recent years, and ESPN FPI projects that trend to continue through the end of the Hokies’ season this year.
