With less than a week to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a deadlock in the battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest exclusive poll from USA TODAY and Suffolk University.
A statewide poll of 500 likely voters found Harris and Trump neck and neck, 47% to 47%. The result was within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted from October 24th to 27th.
In Michigan’s leading Kent County, polls show Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump 47% to 46% among 300 likely voters. The result was within the poll’s 5.7 percentage point margin of error, meaning her lead could have happened by chance.
“It’s very slim,” said pollster David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University and who oversaw the USA TODAY Michigan poll. “It’s a race where we really have some margin for error.”
In 2016, Trump defeated Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton in Kent County, 48% to 45%, mirroring his statewide victory. In 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the state election, defeating Trump 52% to 46%.
Sign up to vote: Text the USA TODAY elections team.
More presidential polls: See the latest Harris vs. Trump polls with 6 days left
“Kent County could be the determining factor,” Paleologos said. “There is a correlation between the county and the state. For example, if Harris wins Kent County by a 3-4 percentage point margin, if the county’s vote is as it has been based on past elections, then Harris has a 3% chance of winning in the state.
With 15 electoral votes at stake, Michigan is one of seven key battleground states where Harris and Trump are competing to win the presidential election. The Wolverine State is considered a “blue wall” state, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have been strongholds of the Democratic Party for decades. In 2016, Trump won the presidency by flipping three states. Four years later, Joe Biden won all three races.
Currently, Michigan and six other battleground states, like the nation as a whole, are unexpectedly close, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.
Michigan has eight presidential candidates on the ballot, including leading third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West, who each received about 1% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. It’s listed.
Mr. Kennedy withdrew from the race in August and endorsed Mr. Trump, but his name will remain on ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin after the Supreme Court rejected his request to remove him on Tuesday. It turns out. Kennedy does not want to draw votes away from Trump in these states.
But Paleologos said that could be the case.
“Normally you would laugh that your opponent got 1% of the vote, but in a race this close and tied, you just can’t laugh at that,” Paleologos said. “Anyone of these three third-party candidates, given that 1%, could make a big difference in Michigan and, by extension, the election as a whole.”
Sign up to vote: Text your political questions: Join our election messaging group, Your Vote
Voters have strong likes and dislikes.
Linda Randle, 68, of Lathrop Village, Michigan, said she already voted for Harris because she believes the Democratic candidate will do the right thing by all people.
“I truly believe that she has people’s best interests at heart, no matter what side of politics they are on,” Rundle said. “All of the plans, especially her economic plan and her housing plan, are going to help not just Democrats, but also Republican voters and people with no party affiliation at all. As long as you’re eligible, it’s going to help you. ”
Randle, a Democrat and former administrative assistant at an auto supplier and mother of two adult sons and three adult grandchildren, said she encourages as many people as possible to vote, regardless of their chosen candidate. spoke.
“All I want is for America to come together and stop this hate and all the problems that we have and talk to each other intelligently instead of trying to outdo each other.” she said. “That’s my prayer: that we come together as a nation.”
Election Day is just a few days away. For the latest news and exclusive analysis, sign up for USA TODAY’s On Politics newsletter.
Ben Gottwald, 34, of Traverse City, said he plans to vote for Trump in hopes the former president can boost the economy and rein in spending.
“He’s by no means a perfect candidate,” Gottwald said. “I thought he did his best from the beginning. My biggest complaint is that he spent so much money that it put America in a big deficit.”
Gottwald, a Marine veteran who spent nearly eight months in Afghanistan more than a decade ago, said he is frustrated by the inability of both Democrats and Republicans to function in Congress. He believes some politicians are out to “line their own pockets” and no one wants to part with the gravy.
“Nothing changes because there is mutual interest between them and the lobbyists,” Gottwald said.
Mr. Gottwald, a building contractor, said more Americans want to buy a home but can’t afford it and are having “money taken out of their pockets.” He believes the housing market was more stable when President Trump was in office.
“The American Dream used to be about buying a home, experiencing a sense of accomplishment, and gaining some wealth. Now, that’s becoming increasingly out of reach.”
Charles Swanson, 32, of Auburn Hills, Michigan, said he voted for Harris partly out of disgust with President Trump.
Swanson, a married doctor who practices internal medicine and pediatrics, said he likes that Harris takes climate change seriously and wants to continue supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia. But he thinks Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, won’t do that.
Swanson, a Democrat, acknowledged that she had “mixed feelings” about Harris, saying, “She seems like a sensitive person who cares about people.” “I like the foreign policy ideas that she espouses, but I don’t really like her economic policy or her immigration policy. I don’t think she handled the border situation all that well either.”
But Ms. Harris did enough to “get votes” compared to Mr. Trump, Mr. Swanson said.
“He tried to overthrow the government in the last election, but he doesn’t seem eligible to run this time,” Swanson said. “I also disliked the general malfeasance and corruption of his administration and his criminal convictions.”
Jolyn Harris, 73, of Adrian, Michigan, said she plans to vote for Trump this week to avoid the lines on Election Day. A retired salesman at a manufacturing company hopes Trump will pick up where he left off.
“Well, I don’t need him to be my best friend or anything. I just want him to get things done,” said Harris, who has been a Republican for more than 40 years. “Trump lowered taxes and started building a wall on the southern border. He has a job to do.”
Harris, a married mother of five adult children and 11 grandchildren, said she was unimpressed with the vice president and didn’t feel the need to vote for her just because she’s a woman. spoke.
“I just want competent people, and I don’t think she’s that,” Jolyn Harris said. “To me, she’s not presidential material.”
Harris said she will be happy once the election is over.
“I think it will be the case for many of us, too. I hope that there will be some stability in our country going forward. We can take advantage of that,” Harris said. “We’re in a big mess right now, and I think it’s going to take more than four years to get it right.”
