An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a race driven by strong enthusiasm among Latino and Black voters, heading into the final stretch of the presidential campaign. It turned out that they were essentially evenly matched.
The poll shows Harris with 45% and Trump with 44%, making it a closer race than in the August poll. Later, at the Democratic National Convention, Vice President Harris led the former president by 5 points, 48% to 43%.
Jacob Rossow, 24, a college student from Oklahoma City, said it was a difficult decision, saying, “I don’t really like either candidate, but if I had to, I would vote for Donald Trump.” He was also among those surveyed. “I feel he’s getting clearer about his policies and what he wants to do. I’m still not sure about Kamala’s plans for the country.”
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by landline and cell phone from Oct. 14 to 18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Voters said by double digits, 57% to 37%, that Harris had not adequately explained the specific policies she would pursue in office. Those who want to hear more include almost one in four of her supporters, or 23%.
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In contrast, those surveyed were evenly split on whether President Trump had adequately explained his policies, with 49% saying yes and 48% saying no. Just 15% of his supporters want to hear more about what he will do next.
In the seven weeks between the two polls, Ms. Harris trailed among Latino voters and black voters, who currently support Mr. Trump 49% to 38%. Harris’ approval rating is 72% to 17%, a 55-point difference that is well below the Democratic Party’s traditional approval rating.
The margin of error for small subsamples of Latino and Black voters is plus or minus 9 points, with a potential swing of up to 18 points on either side, but other recent polls have shown that among Hispanics This shows that Harris is in a stronger position, with her lead in the polls.
In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden’s victory depended on overwhelming support from both groups. A Pew Research Center analysis concluded that 92% of black voters and 59% of Latino voters support him.
But Mr. Trump has made a concerted effort to win over Hispanic and black voters, especially men, by focusing on the economy and crime. Her success in eroding the Democratic Party’s typical advantage has alarmed Harris’ campaign and prompted accusations from former President Barack Obama that black men may be reluctant to vote for women. There is.
Harris, who has ramped up campaign events and ads targeting Latino and Black voters in battleground states, announced last week an economic package aimed at black men, including pledges to lend to small businesses and legalize recreational marijuana use. announced.
The overall ranking of candidates will continue to be determined by gender.
Trump leads men 53% to 37%, while Harris leads women 53% to 36%.
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Who are the replacement candidates?
The poll had some encouraging results for Harris.
She currently holds a 46% to 44% lead over Mr. Trump as the candidate who will do a better job of bringing about change, but given the widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, this key talent is an important candidate. It is human resources. She enjoys double-digit support, 48% to 31%, as the candidate who can better repair the country’s political divisions.
Erin Parker, 52, of Tangent, Oregon, said, “I’m very opposed to President Trump’s economic plan, which includes tariffs, because I saw the devastation that the agricultural industry suffered during President Trump’s first administration.” ” he said. The registered Republican and independent-minded woman said her decision to support Harris was easy because she believes President Trump’s MAGA movement is “authoritarian” and “not healthy for our country.” .
“The fact that she actually has policy is very important,” Parker said.
On issues, Harris has a 20-point advantage on abortion, 56% to 36%, and a 15-point advantage on health care, 54% to 39%.
But Trump leads Harris, 49% to 46%, as the candidate who will do a better job of providing strong leadership.
Confidence in him to handle the economy, which is a top concern for voters, continued to rise by 10 points, 53% to 43%. He is seen as doing a better job on immigration, 51% to 44%, and on foreign policy, 51% to 45%.
“We have to get people back on track, people who can’t afford groceries, people who can’t afford gas for their cars, people who are maxing out their credit cards just to feed their children. ” said Pamela Anderson, 78, a Republican from Alabama and a Trump supporter. “And people who live on Social Security, you know, we have income coming in, but the economy is completely eaten up by this kind of inflation.”
“We completely flew off the rails.”
Most Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country. More than 2 to 1, 61% to 28% of those surveyed say the country is “on the wrong path.” However, there is no consensus on where to turn.
“This is completely the wrong path. It’s insane,” said Rhonda Wax, 63, who works at a travel agency in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. She longs for the days of President Trump’s leadership on the economy and world affairs.
“We’re heading in the wrong direction,” agreed Daniel Mori, 45, of New York City. The Republican, who works in marketing, plans to vote for Harris. His biggest concern is not the economy or foreign relations. “There is a spiral situation where both political parties are moving towards further division,” he said. “We are literally not taking a constructive approach to solving the problems in this country.”
Even as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic rages on, there is more anxiety now than there was four years ago. Voters were then asked President Ronald Reagan’s classic political question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” − 48% to 33% said yes.
Despite positive economic news on jobs and growth, the outlook looks bright compared to today. People surveyed in the new poll were more likely to say their living conditions are worse than they were four years ago, 44% versus 39%.
