Red states are getting even redder. Blue states are getting even bluer.
Is it any surprise that our politics are heating up?
USA TODAY’s exclusive analysis of 3,113 U.S. counties shows that significant redistricting since 2012 has increased partisanship in states across the country, leaving only a few counties in doubt about the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election. It is shown that only a handful remain.
The hardening of the nation’s political trajectory is also contributing to other effects, such as single-party control of governors and state legislatures in 40 of the 50 states. That leaves a patchwork of laws that vary widely across the country and even between neighboring states when it comes to abortion rights, transgender care, the public health response to the pandemic, and other controversial issues. There is.
“In this hyper-polarized era that we’re in, I’m certainly happy to be in the blue bubble,” said Jane Crosson, 67, a former pediatric cardiologist and Democrat. Ta. When she moved from Baltimore to Durham, N.C., “we chose this location knowing that we were moving into an area that was certainly diverse but, you know, deep blue. I have to admit that I chose to move in order to stay here.” If you like, please do so with my tribe. ”
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Crosson was among those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll examining attitudes toward deepening geographic divisions in American politics. We conducted similar surveys in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asking voters about their attitudes toward political differences from other states.
“For example, over the past 16 years of American politics, you’ve seen counties become more homogeneous,” said Ryan Enos, a political scientist at Harvard University who studies the intersection of politics, psychology, and geography. ” he says. This is the result not only of people’s movements, but also of changing party loyalties among some voters and voter turnover as young people and immigrants become eligible to vote.
what we say, what we do
Our polls showed a push and pull.
Most Americans nationwide (55% majority) say it is very or somewhat important to them to live in a community that shares their general political views. In fact, 7% said they moved to a new community to be surrounded by more like-minded neighbors.
But an even larger majority, 60%, said it was very or somewhat important to them to live in a community with diverse people, including people who don’t share their typical political views. More than one in ten, 12%, said they moved to a new community in search of more diversity.
On this point, as on many things, there was partisan conflict.
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say belonging to a community with people who share their general political views is very important, 24% vs. 18%. In contrast, Democrats are nearly three times as likely to say belonging to a community with diverse political views is very important, 30% vs. 11%.
The national poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by landline and cell phone from Aug. 25 to Aug. 28, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Those who moved to more diverse communities included 18% between the ages of 18 and 34; They are at a time when many young people are deciding where to settle down. Also, 17% were Democrats, but only 5% were Republicans.
Roger Sierra, a 28-year-old independent from Miami who supports Republican President Donald Trump, worried that an influx of out-of-state residents was driving up home prices and changing Florida politics. . Sierra, who works in logistics for a delivery service, said in a phone interview after taking the poll that “probably the more people who are politically different from me, the more we’re going to end up like New York or California.” ” he said. “I can’t support left-leaning, straight, ‘vote blue no matter who’ people,” he said.
His family is considering moving to North Carolina, which he called a “little red” state. But, he added, “Similarly, in a situation where it’s ‘vote red or die,’ no. I need some stability.”
Polls in Arizona and Florida found that the top reason for moving to those states was family (37% and 47%), followed by work (32% and 22%). In Florida, weather was also a major factor for 23%.
USA TODAY/Suffolk The poll, conducted by landline and cell phone of 500 likely voters in each county, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The Arizona survey was conducted from September 21 to 24, and the Florida survey was conducted from August 7 to 11.
Politics also played a role.
Fifteen percent of people who moved to Arizona said it was because it was a “better fit for them and their values.” 11% of those who moved to Florida cited the same reason.
Meanwhile, 8% of people currently living in Florida said they plan to move out of state in the next four years. What’s the biggest reason? “Politics/DeSantis” is named after conservative Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, and 40% of those participants volunteered.
“Overall, you have to wonder if these movements are just mobilization for a new kind of civil war,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Center for Political Research. “Not a civil war with militias and muskets, but a quiet separation from fellow Americans living in neighboring states with completely different lives, laws, and political realities.”
“A completely different country”
An interactive map showing how counties voted in the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections shows bright red and blue spots spread across the country. Many of the counties with narrow presidential votes are becoming rare.
“I moved from Maryland and now I’m in Ohio, and it’s been quite a journey,” said Liesl Semper, 58, a human resources professional who now lives in Akron. She is an independent and supports Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris for president. “Ohio feels like a completely different country because Maryland is very, very blue and Ohio is not.”
“I moved for a variety of other reasons, but I found myself in a completely different kind of space,” she said.
Let’s consider the numbers.
From 2012 to 2020, 73% of counties became more partisan, with 224 blue counties becoming more blue and 2,050 red counties becoming more red. (The difference in numbers is not as stark as you might think; red counties are often located in sparsely populated rural areas, and blue counties are often located in densely populated cities or suburbs.) Overall, 40 states The color has become stronger. More than half of the counties became more partisan. The exceptions were Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, Utah, and Vermont. Alaska is not included in the analysis because it is reported by district rather than county. Less than one in five counties (19%) tended to become less partisan over that time, becoming less blue (264 counties) or less red (317). In other words, by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, the county has become more partisan, not less. Only 8% of counties changed color, with 50 red counties turning blue and 208 blue counties turning red. Even fewer – 5% of counties, 161 of which changed color – were relatively competitive in 2020, decided by less than 5% of the vote.
The state-by-state classification has left much of the country out of touch with the intense White House campaign currently underway.
During the fall, both the Harris and Trump campaigns focused on just seven battleground states. Michigan and Wisconsin in the upper Midwest. and North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada in the South and Southwest.
Elsewhere, the outcome is considered largely settled.
It reflects historical change. According to political blogger Paul Rader’s calculations, a majority of states (33 of them) have voted for the same party in every presidential election over the past 20 years, from 2000 to 2020. For 20 years, from 1960 to 1980, a single state voted for the same party in every presidential election.
The impact is not limited to the presidential election. It also makes state and local elections less competitive, reducing the opportunity and need for cross-partisan dialogue and cooperation.
“There’s reason to believe that one way to get people to cross divisions is just to be around people who are different from them, whatever that may be,” said Enos, director of the Center for the Study of American Politics at Harvard University. This applies to religious and racial differences, and some scholars believe the same force may apply to partisan differences. “It’s very important for people to interact, but the more space we are separated from each other, the harder it becomes.”
cross state borders
There’s a chicken and egg aspect to this trend.
One-party control in most states, currently 23 in Republican hands and 17 in Democratic hands, has led to purely conservative policies in some red states and purely liberal policies in some blue states. policies are being introduced. Conversely, these conservative and liberal laws may cause some Americans to consider leaving places where they feel politically isolated or going to places where their opinions are recognized. It says that it has become.
“Part of moving to California was definitely the safety and security of being around more liberal and progressive people,” said Christina Calvert, 39, a Democrat who moved to Sacramento from Chicago. ”, he said, adding that he found it “strange” to think this way about politics in that sense.
Routt County, Colorado, one of the states that is trending blue, shares a border with Carbon County, Wyoming, which is trending red. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden carried Routt County by 27.6 percentage points. Trump led Carbon County by 53.5 points.
Two Mountain West states have rarely enacted policies so widely different over the past few years.
The Wyoming Legislature last year passed and Republican Gov. Mark Gordon signed into law the first law in the nation specifically banning the use of abortion pills. The state also made all abortions illegal except in cases of rape, incest, or a serious risk of death or irreparable bodily harm to the mother. (Pending legal challenges, these laws are on hold.) In March, Gordon signed legislation banning various gender-affirming medical treatments for transgender minors.
Next door, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis signed a bill passed by the Colorado General Assembly in 2022 that would block any government restrictions on abortion. For the first time, the state requires private insurance companies to cover transgender care and also allows youth from other regions to receive gender-affirming care.
That means crossing state lines.
