On Thursday, within hours of the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, President Biden and his aides announced a final push to quell widespread violence in the Middle East: a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage deal. , and scrambled to plan a withdrawal. This follows Israel’s attack on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Israel’s confident declaration of victory could avoid major retaliation against Iran.
“It’s time for this war to end,” Biden said as he emerged from Air Force One, which had landed on the outskirts of Berlin late Thursday. He added that he called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and urged him to “move on” from the war and focus on building a new political landscape in the region.
“It’s time for the day after tomorrow,” Vice President Kamala Harris declared, carefully navigating current election politics. The phrase suggests that the goal of overthrowing Israel is no longer achievable after three weeks in which Israel removed the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas. I encountered an enemy.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent the opposite message: “This war is not over.”
This stark difference encapsulates an argument that has been a consistent theme in many angry exchanges between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu over the past year. With three months left in his term, his last diplomatic mission as president will be to fill that gap.
There is nothing in the showdown with Netanyahu to suggest that the Israeli prime minister will take Netanyahu’s advice or seize the opportunity to turn a military victory into a lasting political achievement. One of Mr. Biden’s senior aides said the administration’s concerns were that Mr. Netanyahu’s killing of Mr. Sinwar and, in front of him, that of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was correct in deflecting U.S. calls for opposition. He said it was about confirming the convictions in his heart. – Escalation over the past few months.
But this time, out of hope and fatigue rather than evidence, government officials are suggesting things may be different.
With the leadership positions of Hamas and Hezbollah in such disrepair, U.S. officials have begun calling on allies in the Middle East to build momentum for some kind of prisoner exchange, even without a permanent ceasefire.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spent much of Thursday on the phone with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts after news of Mr. Sinwar’s killing spread across the region. In Germany, Mr. Blinken issued a statement on Friday with Foreign Minister Annalena Barbok, saying that Mr. Sinwar was “getting in the way of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip” and that “his death could create momentum towards ending the conflict.” There is,” he declared. ”
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is openly at odds with Netanyahu, also called for an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. (Mr. Macron also called for arms reductions for Israel, and reportedly told ministers in a leaked private meeting, “Mr. Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a United Nations decision.” )
Officials say one widely floated idea is an agreement to suspend fighting and release the last 101 hostages, rather than a cease-fire, although intelligence agencies say only about one-third of the hostages will be released. It is believed that there is a possibility that he may be released. Dead. The agreement would be coupled with some kind of guarantee that Hamas fighters holding surviving hostages could release them without being targeted by Israelis. There is also the possibility that talks toward a true ceasefire may be promised.
This is the kind of deal that Mr. Sinwar himself rejected, arguing for Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. But administration officials have indicated there is a possibility, however remote, that a successor to Hamas would agree to such an offer, especially if they believe the alternative has redeemed them. That is the case if it is a continued evisceration of Hamas’s leadership by Israeli forces seeking retaliation. Because of the embarrassment of not being able to prevent the October 7th terrorist attack.
The question is how Prime Minister Netanyahu will fare in the coming days and weeks. Biden may heed the advice he gave in April, when Iran’s first missile attack on Israel failed. “Let’s win,” Biden said at the time, urging against escalating into a large-scale counterattack. In one example, Mr. Netanyahu accepted Mr. Biden’s advice.
But this is a different moment and a different calculation for Mr. Netanyahu. In April, Israel had not yet gained the upper hand. The war in Gaza appeared to be in a quagmire, with Hamas leadership still believed to be operating outside the tunnels. Israel had not yet opened a second front against Hezbollah. Hezbollah has forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes in rocket attacks in northern Israel.
But in the month since Israeli military-planted pagers and walkie-talkies began exploding in the hands of Hezbollah fighters, Israel has regained the element of surprise and a clear military advantage. It is hard to imagine that the commanders of the Israel Defense Forces and the country’s intelligence services will want to ease the pressure now that they have begun to restore their reputations and appear to be on track to achieve their goals.
“From October 7 to today, Israeli leaders have been fairly consistent about their goals,” said Stephen A. Mr. Cook said. The present and future of the Middle East. He said Israel has “changed the rules of the game” since the terrorist attacks a year ago and is determined not to coexist with the threat of terrorism on its borders.
“Their goal is the destruction of Hamas,” he said. “It is not impossible to destroy terrorist organizations. Whether they can do it is still an open question.”
It is possible that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be able to embrace the moment, seeing Sinwar’s death as a major defeat for Hamas. “For Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli military, this has always been a symbol of victory,” Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator now at the Washington Institute, said shortly after Israel announced Sinwar’s killing. . “When we asked in December or January, ‘What does victory look like?’ the Israeli government said, ‘When Sinwar and five or six other Hamas leaders are dead.’
But Prime Minister Netanyahu didn’t sound that way, at least on Thursday. There are many reasons why he continues to fend off pressure from Biden. A true ceasefire and end to the war could well mean the end of his prime ministership and the start of an investigation into why Israel’s shield fell against Hamas a year ago.
It is perfectly clear that his coalition government is far-right.
“We must continue to run as fast as we can until complete victory!” Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security and one of the most right-wing members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, wrote about X after Sinwar’s death. He did not define what a “total victory” meant.
And, like in any conflict, the enemy gets the votes. In this case, at least three people from Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are participating.
Hamas may be the most difficult to read. Mr. Sinwar appears to have left behind a succession plan, but intelligence officials say he resigned because he believed Israel would ultimately kill him, but the terrorist organization’s power centers are revealed. This could take weeks or months.
But Hamas’s early signs of bravado were not encouraging. Khalil al-Khayya, one of Shinwar’s closest MPs and seen as a possible successor, declared after his boss’ death that “the hostages will not return unless the war against the people ends completely.” . It is to free our heroic prisoners from occupied prison. ” It could be months after the next presidential inauguration before it becomes clear whether other Hamas leaders are looking for a way out.
Hezbollah is in a similar turmoil. But like Hamas, its fighters have shown little resignation after Mr. Nasrallah’s death. And while the regime had hoped that Nasrallah’s killing would lead to a breakthrough, so far that hasn’t happened.
The most difficult question is Iran. The deaths of Mr. Nasrallah and Mr. Sinwar, who were armed and backed by Iran, robbed Iran of its most powerful ability to wreak havoc in Israel. Two missile barrages fired at Israeli targets nearly failed. Many missiles penetrated Israel’s defenses, but even those that hit military bases appeared to cause little damage.
Raz Zimto, an Iran expert at Tel Aviv University’s National Security Institute, said Iran’s leadership could move in one of three directions after Sinwar’s death.
They could ignore Israel’s recent string of military victories and focus on rebuilding its proxy forces. Both countries are seeking broader rapprochement with the West, similar to what many U.S. officials thought could emerge from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the West that former President Donald J. Trump abandoned. It is possible to explore. This dashed our last hopes for greater understanding.
Alternatively, Mr. Zimt may decide that the only true protection against a resurgent Israel is to “revise nuclear principles” and try to turn enriched uranium stockpiles into actual weapons. It says that there is also.
If this effort is successful, it would represent a major tactical success in killing terrorist leaders. But it could pose a more existential challenge for Israel and the United States.
