Donald J. Trump turned his back to the crowd and stared at the screen. Eerie music rang out. For the next minute and a half, the former president and the audience in Atlanta stood, silently watching clips of news reports about illegal immigrants who committed horrific crimes.
As the montage ended, Trump said out loud what he had been telling his advisers privately for weeks. It was Trump’s idea that immigration was “number one.” 1” to be issued for the 2024 election.
“It trumps the economy. To me, this trumps everything, not even close,” Trump said about immigration after playing the video Tuesday night. “The United States is now an occupied country, but November 5, 2024 will be America’s Liberation Day.”
In the final weeks of the campaign that the former president has waged more or less since his first year in office, Mr. Trump is gutting himself, doubling down on the rhetoric he believes won him the 2016 election and capitalizing on immigration. And borders are central to his final message to voters.
These intuitions are at odds with the data and some of his advisers.
Trump told aides he defeated Hillary Clinton on the border issue in 2016, but the border was “fixed” in 2020 — due in part to the coronavirus pandemic, and illegal immigration has decreased dramatically – and as a result, the border line could not be used as is. The Question Against Joseph R. Biden Jr. Immigration has become a stronger political message than ever before under the Biden-Harris administration, which experienced record levels of border crossings and helped defeat the administration’s attempted bipartisan border security bill. I believe that Passed.
But neither public nor private surveys support Trump’s racial theory. Voters often rank the economy and high cost of living as the most important issues.
Mr. Trump has spent considerable time and energy in recent days on economic events, making car loan interest fully tax deductible and offering tax breaks for companies that move or keep manufacturing in the United States. and other benefits. .
But Mr. Trump draws energy from his rallies, and the reaction he gets on immigration there helps convince him that the issue is better for him than the economy. When Trump launches his attack on immigrants, it becomes vibrant, colorful, dark, and tribal. And there’s a difference in the reaction from audiences and the press compared to the reaction he gets when he talks about food prices, taxes, and tariffs. It’s getting more attention, and it always has been.
Trump told allies that he thought talking too much about the economy would “boring” the crowd, according to a person close to him.
And Mr. Trump has a new reason to focus on the issue. Trump told his rally audience and loved ones that his opposition to illegal immigration saved his life.
In Butler, Pennsylvania, in July, Trump turned his head to look at a diagram of illegal border crossings on a screen, just as the would-be assassin’s bullet missed his skull by less than an inch and grazed his ear. He gave this figure and the problems it represented an almost mythical status. “If you think about it, illegal immigrants saved my life, and I’m the only one,” Trump told an audience in Aurora, Colorado, adding, “Usually it’s the other way around.”
Some people close to Trump, like his influential adviser Stephen Miller, fully support his instincts to make immigration a top priority for voters. . Other allies say some of his more extreme immigration comments, such as unsubstantiated claims that Haitian immigrants eat dogs and cats, are alienating moderate voters who need his support. I am concerned that there is a danger.
Trump has asked his advisers to get more immigration content, and they are responding. Miller, one of Trump’s toughest immigration hawks, has frequently flown on Trump’s planes since the summer and has played a major role in shaping his final message. Miller declined to comment for this article.
Trump announced last month that he would visit Springfield, Ohio, after spreading unsubstantiated rumors that Haitian immigrants were eating the pets of the city’s residents. He announced publicly that he would soon travel to Springfield.
Although Ohio is not considered a battleground state, Trump thought it would be politically powerful for him to appear to highlight the dangers of illegal immigration. (The immigrants in question had entered Haiti legally, many of them fleeing Haiti’s violence and chaos and qualifying for Temporary Protected Status.) But a bomb threat shut down the Springfield school. After a surge in threats against Haitians, local Republican officials implored Mr. Trump: Stay away to avoid causing further chaos in a city already under severe tension. Ohio’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, also chimed in, accusing Trump of denigrating hard-working Haitians.
Many on Trump’s team privately believed that the Springfield trip would do more political harm than good. During a Univision town hall broadcast Wednesday, Trump continued to insist he would visit Springfield. However, no date has been announced.
A compromise within the former president’s campaign was for Trump not to travel to Springfield, but instead to speak in Aurora, Colorado, a city he had used to exaggerate the toll caused by immigrant gangs. Like Ohio, Colorado is not a battleground state, but Trump was determined to visit to highlight his top priorities.
Speaking there on Oct. 11, Trump said he would use the Alien Hostile Act (last used to put people of Japanese ancestry and others in concentration camps during World War II) to force gang leaders out of the country. He emphasized his desire to be expelled. The law allows authorities to radically deport people from countries that have invaded the United States, are at war with the United States, or engaged in “predatory intrusion.” Although the Supreme Court has upheld past applications of the law, it is unclear whether the justices would allow the president to extend the law to include drug cartel activity rather than acts of foreign governments.
Even when Trump talks about the economy, he tends to bring the issue back to immigration. When The New York Times asked the Trump campaign about its plans to reduce housing costs, the campaign said mass deportations would increase the supply of housing and reduce costs.
Asked to explain Trump’s focus in the final stages of the campaign, President Trump’s spokesman Brian Hughes said, “President Trump is focused on Kamala Harris’ porous borders, including rising home prices and soaring housing prices.” “We rightly recognize that it is at the center of so many problems.” Low wages or overcrowded hospitals and schools. Open borders mean taxpayers’ money is wasted on illegal immigration rather than benefiting citizens. President Trump’s final message is all about putting the American people first and restoring prosperity. ”
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who has studied voting patterns extensively, said Mr. Trump is gambling that playing on fear will win more votes than it costs. He said some of Trump’s rhetoric could appeal to suburban white women who are worried about Roe v. Wade’s decision and fear an influx of immigrants, while also potentially turning off other voters. He said that there is a sex.
“He has calculated risk options,” Rocha said.
Trump’s views on immigration and the country have changed over time.
When Trump considered a presidential bid in 2011, immigration was not a lingering issue. Three years later, as illegal border crossings of unaccompanied children increased under President Barack Obama, the issue dominated conservative news media and became the focus of Trump’s election campaign in June 2015. This was the focus of the speech.
Immigration is now a powerful motivating issue in general elections, and the second most important issue for many voters. And one of Mr. Trump’s signature policy proposals, a border wall, now enjoys widespread support and extends beyond his own base.
Mr. Trump already has an advantage among voters who care most about immigration, so it remains unclear how much he has room to increase turnout by focusing on the issue.
Voters have very clearly and consistently ranked the economy as the most important issue this election, far ahead of abortion and immigration. Even Republicans are nearly twice as likely to cite the economy as the most important issue when voting on immigration, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.
Trump has an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris on both the economy and immigration. But while Trump’s lead on the economy has narrowed in some polls, his lead on immigration remains broadly consistent.
While Harris and President Biden have slammed Democrats for the influx of migrants, they have also sought to revamp their image as tough on migrants, including calling on Mexico to step up its own crackdowns to keep migrants away from the U.S. border. I’m excited. Harris was asked about her position on immigration in an interview with Fox News host Bret Baier on Wednesday. She acknowledged that systemic problems remain.
Harris is also trying to use Trump’s opposition to a bipartisan border bill to counter that the former president is not interested in solving the border problem, but just wants to use it as a political issue.
In a speech in Wisconsin last month, Trump promised to “liberate” the state from “an invasion of murderers, rapists, thugs, drug dealers, thugs and violent gang members.”
“There is nothing more serious than this, because this is about the very foundations of our society,” he said. “Your way of life.”
Trump made a similar point Tuesday night in Atlanta.
“After years of building up other countries, we will protect our borders, protect our families, and protect America’s suburbs, cities, and towns,” he declared.
