CNN —
Democrats have staked the fate of the White House on the assumption that if voters remember the chaos and division of President Donald Trump’s presidency, he will experience an election-deciding downturn.
The former president’s outlandish comments over the past few weeks have revived memories of his tumultuous four years in the White House and shattered perceptions of a more disciplined campaign than in 2020 or 2016. But the nature of the race – close contests in key battleground states – has not changed.
Trump has spread unfounded rumors that immigrants in Ohio are eating pets. He has warned that if he loses the November election, Jewish voters will be to blame. As CNN’s KFile reported last week, Trump has refused to publicly condemn a North Carolina gubernatorial candidate for describing himself as a “black Nazi” on a pornography site. Trump also responded to the second assassination attempt by implying that Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party are inviting the attacks by refusing to acknowledge his loss in the 2020 election and highlighting what he calls a danger to democracy.
Nevertheless, the former president still finds himself embroiled in what is, as CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten noted Sunday, the closest presidential race since Democrat John F. Kennedy’s narrow victory over Vice President Richard Nixon.
“I can tell you this: This election is going to be close. We’ve known that all along,” Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a key political network for Harris’ hopes in a must-win state for Democrats, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. She added, “We know in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that it’s going to be close.”
The fierce nature of the race was highlighted by comments and tactics from candidates during a tense campaign event over the weekend.
Harris suggested Trump was “looking for an excuse” after accepting an invitation from CNN to appear at the second debate on October 23. Meanwhile, Trump posted in all caps to Truth Social in a desperate attempt to reduce the huge gender gap that threatens his election. Trump vowed, “I will protect women like never before. They will finally be healthy, hopeful, safe and secure. Their lives will be happy, beautiful and wonderful again!”
In a rare reflective moment on Sunday, Trump told “Full Measure”‘s Sharyl Atkisson that if he loses in November, he won’t run again in 2028. “I think … that’s it. I don’t think so at all,” he said.
But despite the heated election atmosphere, the campaign has remained deadlocked for weeks.
Since her debate with Trump earlier this month, Harris’ approval rating has risen slightly in national polls, but there is still no clear leader. The latest CNN polling average puts the vice president at 50% approval, compared with Trump’s 47%. The survey incorporates five polls taken after the Sept. 10 debate. An NBC News poll added to the average on Sunday put Harris at 49% approval, compared with Trump’s 44%. That’s the former president’s lowest approval rating in any poll that meets CNN’s criteria since Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in July.
While Harris’ improving trajectory is reason for optimism for her supporters, the presidential election is decided by the Electoral College, which means the results in a handful of states where polling averages are just a few points apart will matter: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. Whether Trump or Harris wins could give just a few hundred thousand voters the power to choose between vastly different paths for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
So why is this race so close?
After all, Trump’s attempted comeback is a remarkable story given that he incited his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, and left office in disgrace by refusing to acknowledge that he lost the election. Twice impeached, Trump is a convicted felon facing further criminal charges. It is hard to imagine any other politician who has weathered such a storm of scandal and is in a position to once again reach the Oval Office.
Before the president dropped out of the race, the Biden campaign’s core principle was that voters would see Trump’s unvarnished bombast and bring back memories of his tumultuous term, leading to his loss. But Biden’s loss at the CNN debate in June, when his age was painfully obvious, erased that comparison. Harris, who turned the tide of the campaign on Biden’s behalf, has sought to highlight the contrast between her own pragmatism and Trump’s extremism. At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month, she promoted a narrative that Trump was a “non-serious man” who posed a “very serious” threat. But with just over six weeks left, the Harris campaign’s best interpretation is that the vice president has turned a race that was very likely to be lost back into a close one as usual.
To understand what’s coming, we must first acknowledge Trump’s remarkable resilience as a politician, who has remade the Republican Party in his own image and maintained an unshakable grip on the GOP base as its candidate for three consecutive elections.
And despite the condemnation of Trump’s first term, polls show that many voters believe the U.S. was more economically stable with Trump as president, as reflected in lower rent, car and grocery prices, at least until the coronavirus pandemic hit.
But such sentiment may not yet carry Trump to victory. Trump’s approval rating (47%) in the CNN poll highlights a flaw that has dogged him in presidential elections: his inability to secure the support of a majority of Americans.
With this in mind, it’s worth wondering whether a Republican alternative who doesn’t take actions that alienate key battleground states, moderates, suburban voters and disgruntled Republicans might fare better in a head-to-head matchup with Harris. Republicans had a chance to get ahead, but they overwhelmingly rejected candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in primaries earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Ms. Harris is a last-minute replacement for a president seeking reelection who voters had long ago concluded was not fit for a second term. The vice president takes on an equally difficult task: rescuing the party from possible defeat in November while simultaneously assuming the role that many Democrats expect to be the savior of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has positioned herself as a new generation of change agent, but she remains part of an unpopular administration in a highly unfavorable political environment.
The NBC poll offers an explanation for this contradictory dynamic. The top concern expressed by voters was inflation and the cost of living, at 28 percent. That figure was up from 23 percent in April. Voters’ second-most-important concern was threats to democracy (19 percent). While this issue seems to favor Democrats, it could also reflect growing support among conservatives for Trump’s false claim that Democrats, with their weaponized judiciary system, threaten democratic freedoms. The third most important issue for voters in the NBC poll was immigration and the border (14 percent). This is another area where polls show Harris remains vulnerable. Only 6 percent of voters viewed abortion, one of Harris’s key issues, in the same way.
Voters’ concerns about the economy suggest either candidate could have an advantage in the final weeks, with Trump unveiling new economic proposals that sometimes seem improvised, such as a proposal to not tax tips and to eliminate provisions on state and local taxes in his administration’s tax plan.
Harris has pledged to help people afford housing, child care and health care costs, and is trying to convince voters that she truly understands the pain that rising prices at the grocery store cause, even as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week.
The vice president will try to push back this week against criticism that she hasn’t been specific enough about her plan, as voters in battleground states consider whether they can count on her to make their lives better. “I’ll be giving a speech this week outlining my vision for the economy,” the vice president told reporters on Sunday. “I call it the Opportunity Economy, which simply puts it: what can we do to address the challenges the American people face, like high grocery prices and housing affordability, while investing more in their aspirations, their ambitions and their dreams.”
Harris’s strategy highlights a reality of this election cycle in which voter discontent can work to the Republican candidate’s advantage, but the race remains tight because of Trump’s tendency to alienate voters despite surprising loyalty among his supporters.
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, one of Trump’s leading supporters, summed up the current state of the race in a conversation with NBC’s Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press” Sunday: “Pollars show 65% of people say the country is going in the wrong direction. Who’s best at solving our crime problem? Trump by 6 points. Who’s best at solving the economy? Trump by 9 points. On inflation, Trump by 8 points. On the border, Trump by 21 points.”
“So what does this poll tell us? Trump is winning decisively on the things that matter most to the American people. Just not in head-to-head battles.”
