Or will it directly target facilities that Iran has threatened to attack for years, starting with the underground facility in Natanz where it enriches near-bomb-grade uranium?
U.S. officials believe they can persuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to get their point across without sparking a full-scale war. But they acknowledge that the Israeli prime minister may see the next five weeks before the US presidential election as a golden opportunity to delay that plan by several years. After all, former President Donald J. Trump would not complain about a major attack on Iran’s military infrastructure, and Democrats cannot afford to be accused of holding back Israel after Tuesday’s missile attack.
“Israel will do its best to be disproportionate,” Gen. Wesley K. Clark, NATO’s former supreme allied commander, told CNN on Tuesday. White House officials take the opposite view. They say Mr. Netanyahu cannot do anything other than proportionality.
This new era comes with many risks. Frustrated by the inability of its missile forces to break through Israeli and American weapons, Iran has finally convinced itself that the time has come to compete for nuclear weapons, seeing the risky move as the only way to prevent the development of nuclear weapons. There is a risk of getting lost. Enemies who have broken into iPhones, pagers, and computer systems. Despite the election of a new moderate president in Iran, there is a risk that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will win the domestic debate and double down on its missile program and influence tools.
Jonathan Panikov, director of Scowcroft’s Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said: “An all-out war, or a more limited war, could have devastating consequences for Lebanon, Israel and the region.” ” he said. “But from there, unforeseen opportunities will also arise to undermine Iran’s negative influence in the region, for example by actively thwarting Hezbollah rebuilding efforts, and the new administration will be prepared to take advantage of them.” Should be.”
Those are old wars and hot wars. They create new power relations and create vacuums that need to be filled.
But there remains a risk that a broader war, once started, could take years to undo. And the presence of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and escalating instincts make for a particularly toxic brew.
