Neither vaccine makers nor analysts are yet sure what the new fall respiratory virus market will look like in a post-pandemic world. However, the low intake rate this season is as expected so far.
The number of doses of the COVID-19 and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccines has increased compared to the same period last year, according to a Friday note from Jefferies analyst Michael Yee. It is said that the number is smaller than that of the previous year.
This includes COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), with a total of about 2.5 million doses administered weekly as of October 4, down from 2.4 million the previous week. increased to Meanwhile, doses of RSV vaccines, including those from Pfizer, Moderna and GSK (GSK), are down 40% from a year ago.
The impact of the new coronavirus began strongly at the end of August, but has slowed recently. Wall Street is waiting to see whether the economy recovers by the holiday season or continues to decline, which would suggest weaker sales this year for both Moderna and Pfizer. Dew. There are approximately 2.5 million prescriptions for coronavirus vaccines, including 1 million for Moderna and 1.5 million for Pfizer.
Will he be able to expand his portfolio? Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel (Boston). (AP Photo/Charles Krupa) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Investors are closely monitoring vaccine sales to understand whether they will continue to contribute significantly to manufacturers’ profits post-pandemic and at what level they will bottom out.
Moderna faces the most scrutiny as it brings two vaccines to market and seeks to break away from being a single-product company.
But Jefferies said Moderna’s vaccine market share is less than 1%, making it “insignificant” for the RSV vaccine. In addition, the coronavirus market share is around 40%, which is lower than last year’s market share of 48%.
Moderna was the first company to prove that mRNA technology works during the pandemic. The company posted nearly $38 billion in sales from coronavirus vaccines in 2021 and 2022, but that fell to just $6.8 billion last year. This is the company’s first RSV season, which runs from September to April and typically peaks by February.
This year’s RSV market was expected to be weaker than last year, which was the first season the shot was on the market.
Yi wrote that the company expected RSV injection volumes to be down about 15-20% compared to 2023 ($2 billion in sales and about 10 million doses administered). The forecast for 2024 was about 8 million shots.
But six weeks into the season, only 900,000 prescriptions have been filled so far, compared to 1.5 million at the same time last year, a 40% increase over the previous year. It has decreased.
Investors will be watching to see whether the three companies change their 2024 outlooks in their upcoming earnings releases.
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“As we enter the second year of the epidemic, there is some discussion that we will see a decline in coronavirus infections this season as well, but our predictions are based on demand-based commentary,” Yi wrote. “We also confirm that MRNA share lowers the 2025 guidance, and our collaborators hint at assumptions regarding lower vaccination rates in 2025.”
Moderna has lowered its 2024 sales forecast from $4 billion to $3 billion to $3.5 billion. Meanwhile, Pfizer raised its outlook earlier this year after several cost-cutting measures. The company now expects sales to increase from $58.5 billion to $61.5 billion and be in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, with a total of $8.5 billion for its COVID-19 vaccine and COVID-19 drug Paxlobid. dollar is expected.
Anjalee Khemlani is a senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all areas of pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBM, and health policy and politics. Of course, this also includes GLP-1. Follow Anjalee on most social media platforms @AjKhem.
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