Amari Cooper scored a TD in his first game as a Bill and had a solid fantasy football performance in Week 7. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Burns)
The NFL was blessed with two blockbuster trades this week: Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. The Adams trade felt like a long time coming, with Aaron Rodgers actively prodding it. However, the Cooper trade filled a much-needed void for the Buffalo Bills. Rather than a trade to continue building offensive talent, this was a move that could reshape the Bills’ offense going forward, given the obvious holes in their struggling receiving corps.
The Bills enter 2024 with various expectations for their new receiver corps. With the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills added in free agency, drafting Keon Coleman. Although there are glimmers of hope, the sledding journey so far has been tough.
Cooper’s addition provides the Bills with much-needed offensive reinforcement, as well as a turnaround and opportunity that has been missing all season along with Deshaun Watson. Cooper’s 2024 was a disaster, aside from one boom game in Week 3 where he finished fourth overall among WRs with two touchdowns. The next best was WR44 with only 8 fantasy points.
Cooper was essentially a booming wide receiver, but his production level was far below expectations and was mostly out of his control. Connecting with Josh Allen would immediately increase his usage.
Heading into Week 7, all of the Bills’ pass catchers were averaging less than 10 fantasy points per game at half PPR. Khalil Shakir leads the way, averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game. The receiving corps’ target percentages have been flat, with Shaquille having 21 targets in five games (one less than any other pass catcher), Coleman having 20, Mack Hollins having 19, and Curtis Samuel having 17. Ta. Many expected it to lack credibility. In the receiving corps, Dalton Kincaid will be the lead target. And so far, that’s been the case for the tight end, who has 31 targets on the season. Despite leading the team in looks, Kincaid averaged just under seven fantasy points per game, good for a TE10.
Josh Allen had two QB1 finishes in Weeks 1 and 3, but those were against Arizona and Jacksonville, two of the league’s worst defenses. In other weeks, he finished as QB28 twice and QB19 once. The offense struggled overall, with an inconsistent run game and no signs of turning around.
Insert Amari Cooper!
Although Cooper’s usage was limited, the Bills looked like a reborn team as they defeated the Titans 34-10. All of the Bills receivers soar the boards dramatically in fantasy production. The entire group appears to be coming together, which is a solid step in the right direction, especially against a Tennessee defense that improved during the offseason and was strong against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Ta.
Pulse Check No. 1: Is Week 7’s production real? What can we expect from the Bills’ receivers going forward?
While the Week 7 numbers weren’t a dramatic increase for Allen, there was a clear difference between his production and that of the overall receiving corps. Allen had the highest number of pass attempts all year. He has yet to exceed 30 attempts in a game, and his previous highest passing yards were 263.
In Week 7, he completed 21 of 33 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns.
The targets were a little more concentrated this week due to increased production, but it was perfect for our fantasy purposes. Cooper, Coleman, Shaquille and Kincaid all had five or more targets, and there was minimal receiving usage from the running backs.
According to PFF, the Bills played 55 offensive snaps. Cooper played 19 snaps, ran 12 routes and received five targets. He led all Bills pass catchers with 14.6 fantasy points, just ahead of Coleman with 14.5. Cooper was limited as expected in the first game, but his target rate per route run was higher than usual, a level he shouldn’t expect going forward, and showed the Bills were intentional with how he was used. .
Coleman played 41 snaps, consistent with his previous usage, but had a season-high seven targets and had four catches for 125 yards. His day could have been even better as a close touchdown was overturned. Coleman is having the best game of his young career and it will be interesting to see how he works with Cooper and the depth of his average targets going forward. This was a great sign that Cooper’s presence would create more opportunities for other receivers, with Coleman potentially being the biggest beneficiary.
Oddly enough, despite the addition of Cooper, Hollins still played a significant number of snaps at 41 and saw just one target despite running 23 routes. For purposes of fantasy, Hollins can be considered non-elementary.
Shaquille was out in Week 5 and was limited in Week 6 before returning to regular usage. He had a productive day catching all seven targets for 65 yards and continued to be a reliable intermediate target for Allen.
Additionally, Curtis Samuel left the game with an injury. However, despite being second in touches among the receiving corps, Samuel is the least productive receiver in fantasy points per touch, with only 1.45 points per touch in PPR. For comparison, heading into Week 7, Coleman had a 3.68 grade and Shaquille had a 2.72 grade. Things may change a little with Samuel’s return, but he’s averaging less than three goals per game, and the Bills’ best path may not include a significant use of Samuel.
Pulse check #2: Does Kincaid actually have room to improve as a TE1?
Kincaid’s usage was more interesting. He played 40 snaps and ran 25 routes, while Dawson Knox played 31 snaps and 15 routes. Kincaid had six targets in sight, while Knox had three. Kincaid remains one of the team’s top target leaders and should maintain his current level of production, but the addition of Cooper eliminates the chance of Kincaid being a consistent top-five tight end. Knox will continue to siphon off enough targets to limit Kincaid’s upside to low-end TE1 territory.
Pulse Check #3: What do you get from running backs with a slight increase in passing volume?
I’m a little curious about how the running backs will be used in Week 7. It’s hard to look at just one game and say the Bucks’ receiving volume will decrease. There is a possibility that it was abnormal. There were only three targets for running backs, one for both Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, and none for James Cook. The lack of receiving upside will limit the ceiling a bit, but both backs scored rushing touchdowns and were a bright spot for the offense to be more productive.
Volume may decrease slightly, but this will be countered by increased red zone opportunities. However, fantasy managers should be a little concerned about his influence on Davis and Cook’s production. Cook was the lead back, gaining 32 yards on 12 carries, while Davis was very efficient, gaining 41 yards on just five carries.
Cooper’s addition shouldn’t hurt the run game, but a potential concern is the potential for more committee work.