CNN —
The race for the White House is on a razor’s edge in CNN’s final national poll before votes are counted. A poll conducted by SSRS found that 47% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris, while 47% support former President Donald Trump.
A CNN poll found that Harris and Trump remained in a close race throughout the short campaign. In September, voters were split almost evenly, 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump, according to a poll shortly after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and abandoned support for Harris over the summer. , garnered support from 49% of registrants. Voters support Mr. Trump, with 46% supporting Ms. Harris.
In CNN’s polls of Harris and Biden in this year’s presidential election, Trump has never been within the margin of error, which is a big difference from the previous two presidential elections.
Throughout this turbulent political year, the campaign has been surprisingly stable. According to the poll, 85% of prospective voters said they knew from the beginning which party they would support in the presidential election, and only 15% said they changed their mind midway through. At the moment, more people are completely immobilized. Only 2% of all voters said they had not yet chosen a candidate, and a further 9% said they might change their mind before voting.
Voters who say their choice is fixed are currently split between 50% for Harris and 49% for Trump, with just 1% supporting another candidate. Those likely to change their leanings toward Trump are much more likely to support a minority party or independent candidate than undecided voters (38% support Trump, 31% support Harris, 30% support but other). They are also far less likely to vote than those who have made up their minds. 70% of likely voters who say they are determined are “very willing” to vote, but that number drops to just 27% of voters who are likely to change their mind.
Harris likely has more votes than Trump so far, given that Democrats are more likely to vote early and by mail, according to polls. The poll was conducted from October 20 to 23, after early voting and absentee voting were well underway across the country, and 20% of voters said they had already cast their ballots, compared to 61% for Harris. Among voters who said so, 20% said so, compared with 61% for Harris and 36% for Trump. They have yet to vote to support Trump (50% vs. 44%).
In the final days of the campaign, the country’s registered voters turned out to be highly negative about President Biden’s appointments and the situation in the country in general. About half (49%) say their financial situation is worse now than a year ago, but only 16% say their financial situation has improved in the past 12 months. This is worse than at the beginning of this year, when 41% said the situation had gotten worse and 22% said the situation had gotten better. Just 32% say things are going well in the U.S. right now, down from 38% who felt that way in January. This was the lowest percentage of Americans who said so in the last CNN poll before the presidential election since 2008, when dissatisfaction with the deepening economic crisis and the prolonged war in Iraq propelled Barack Obama to the presidency.
A new poll of registered voters shows that Biden’s approval ratings have declined significantly (36% approve, 64% disapprove). The vice president maintains support from 19% of likely voters who say they disapprove of how Biden is handling the presidency. Past vice presidents running for the top job have typically not fared particularly well among voters who disapprove of their bosses. In 1988 exit polls, George H.W. Bush won just 11% of voters who disapproved of Ronald Reagan, and Al Gore got only 9. % of voters who did not approve of Bill Clinton’s job in 2000.
Candidate evaluation
Registered voters’ views of both Harris (41% favorable, 52% unfavorable) and Trump (41% favorable, 54% unfavorable) were negative. Mr. Trump’s ratings are about the same as in September, but Ms. Harris’s ratings have become slightly more negative (favorability rating has fallen by 4 points). Vice presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz are still less well-known than the vice presidential candidates, with Walz having a 50/50 split (34% favorable, 34% unfavorable) and Vance having a negative view. (33% favorable, 43% unfavorable). ).
While most Harris voters say they are voting for her (54%) over Trump (45%), fewer say they are voting primarily against Trump. It’s up 5 points since September, perhaps reflecting Harris’ own recent focus. Deliver a louder anti-Trump message. Meanwhile, Trump supporters are still more likely to say their vote was to express support for Trump (73%) than against Harris (27%).
Voters say Harris cares more about people like them than Trump (Harris 43% vs. Trump 37%) and is honest and trustworthy (Harris 41% vs. Trump 29%). are more likely to say they prioritize the interests of their country over their own interests (Harris 45%). 39% Trump). Trump has an advantage in bringing about needed changes in the country (Trump 44% to Harris 38%) and in sharing voters’ vision for the country (Trump 43% to Harris 39%).
But for each of these attributes, more than 16% of likely voters say neither candidate fits the bill. Most notably, 29% say neither candidate is honest or trustworthy, and 19% say neither candidate cares about people like them. Nearly 3 in 10 people say neither candidate is honest or trustworthy, with 58% backing Trump and 25% backing Harris. On the other hand, voters who think neither party can bring about the change the country needs (Harris 52% vs. Trump 23%) or voters who think neither party shares their vision for the country (Harris 50% vs. Trump 27%) %), Harris maintains a large lead. ).
It’s likely that voters are primarily turned off by Trump’s attitude and temperament (56% say that’s why they would vote against him). About half say the same about his criminal convictions and the criminal charges he faces (51%) and his pledge to go after his enemies if elected president (50%). More people see his level of physical and mental ability as a reason to vote against him (46%) than to vote for him (35%). This is a negative change compared to the perception of his abilities when he was in charge. And voters will likely be split on whether his record as president is positive (45%) or negative (43%). However, his track record as a businessman is seen as somewhat positive (42% see it as a reason to vote for him, 39% disagree).
Relatively few of Trump’s own supporters see Trump’s behavior and pledges to go after his enemies as reasons for their opposition, and about half of Trump’s supporters say these factors affirm his appeal. I think it’s a part of it.
Harris’ attitude and temperament (45% said they would vote, 34% opposed) and mental and physical abilities (49% said they voted, 27% opposed) are more clearly positive for voters. Her record as vice president is often viewed more negatively than positively (46% say that’s why they vote against her, while 26% agree), and her record as a prosecutor is viewed more negatively than positively (33% in favor, 32% against, 35% unrelated).
Few say the possibility of Harris becoming the first female president should be a factor in the election (65% say it doesn’t matter either way). Those who agree are more likely to view it positively (24%) than negatively (11%). Women are more likely than men to say that’s why they’re voting for Harris (29% vs. 20%), an especially sharp divide among Harris’ own supporters (women supporting Harris (52% of respondents say that’s why they’d vote Harris vs. Harris). 39% of her male supporters).
The balance of power between the two candidates on the most important issues remains roughly the same as last month. Trump holds a wide lead among likely voters as more trustworthy on economic policy (50% say they trust Trump more, 37% say Harris) and immigration policy (50% say they trust him more, 34% say Harris). However, there is a slight difference in foreign policy (48%). Trump vs. Harris (38%). Harris has a large advantage on handling abortion and reproductive rights (Harris 52% vs. Trump 31%), but a small advantage on protecting democracy (Harris 45% vs. Trump). 41%).
Surveys of how decisive these two issues are for voters suggest that the issues are slightly more favorable to Ms. Harris. Thirty-one percent of registered voters said they would only vote for a candidate who shared their views on abortion, and 24% said they would only vote for a candidate who shared their views on abortion. The same goes for April. A new poll found that only 26% of people view the candidates’ views on immigration the same way.
Harris has a close lead with independents (45% Harris to 41% Trump), and both candidates have over 90% support (93% of Democrats support Harris, 92% of Republicans support Trump). support).
Harris outperformed women voters (Harris 50% vs. Trump 44%), younger voters (Harris 51% vs. Trump 41% among voters under 35), and voters of color, including black voters (Harris 79% vs. Trump 13%). has an advantage over Trump. % Trump) and Hispanic voters (Harris 54% vs. Trump 37%). Suburban voters lean in Harris’ direction (Harris 52% to Trump 44%), and her lead there is largely driven by suburban women, beating Harris 55% to Trump 41%. Suburban men were almost evenly divided.
However, Trump leads among men (Trump 51% to Harris 45%), white voters (Trump 55% to Harris 41%), rural voters (Trump 64% to Harris 31%), and those who said they did not vote. are. Voted in 2020 (50% Trump, 40% Harris).
There is little gender disparity among likely white voters, with white men trailing Trump by 17 points and white women trailing him by 13 points. However, among voters who are likely to be people of color, support for Harris is split sharply among both men and women, while women support her by a wide margin. Harris leads Trump by 46 points among women of color, but by 27 points among men of color. White voters also continue to be sharply divided by educational background, with white voters without a college degree favoring Trump 62% to 34%, while voters with a four-year degree favor Harris 50% to Trump. There was an almost even split between respondents at 46%. .
The survey found no clear leader in the general congressional vote, with 48% of likely voters saying they preferred the Republican candidate in their congressional district over the 45% who would vote Democratic.
The CNN poll was conducted online and by telephone by SSRS from October 20 to 23, 2024, among 1,704 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all voters registered to vote, weighted based on their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. It’s 3.1 among likely voters, but even higher among subgroups.
