With less than six weeks until the general election, former President Donald Trump has a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Arizona, according to the latest exclusive poll from USA TODAY and Suffolk University.
A statewide poll of 500 likely voters found Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by 6 points, 48% to 42%. The poll is believed to have a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. That means the race remains close, as the difference can swing in either direction depending on the points for the two candidates. The poll was conducted from September 21st to 24th.
Another poll conducted by the same team during the same period found that in Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, which is typical of where the state is going, Mr. Trump held a 47% lead over Ms. Harris. The lead has narrowed to 43%. . That number is within the 5.7 percentage point margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 300 additional likely voters in Maricopa County.
A statewide poll found that just under half (47%) of Arizona’s Latino voters say they support Harris. Trump is supported by 35% of Latinos in the state. Arizona has about 1.3 million Latino voters, or about a quarter of the state’s registered voters.
Arizona has 11 electoral votes, making it a key battleground state for winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Harris and Trump are fiercely contesting the state, and the vice president will visit Douglas, Arizona, on Friday. Earlier this month, President Trump held a rally in Tucson. Top surrogates from both camps have visited the state in recent days.
Sign up to vote: Text the USA TODAY elections team.
Trump’s lead poses a complication for Harris, who initially saw her approval ratings rise in the state after taking the lead over President Joe Biden. Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by less than 11,000 votes. In 2016, Trump was in charge of the nation. Still, the poll found that 5% of respondents were still undecided.
Anna Keck, who voted for Biden in 2020, said she will vote for Trump this time because she believes the Democratic Party has made economic and foreign policy mistakes, including the war with Russia and Ukraine.
“I don’t think they were able to come up with as many changes as they said they were going to come up with,” Keck, 39, of Scottsdale, said of Democrats.
But for Jordan Waddell, 30, concerns about women’s protections such as access to abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and Project 2025 are the reasons she supports Harris.
“We all really need a president who doesn’t focus on hate,” said Waddell, an Avondale resident. “Donald Trump, he doesn’t understand any of that. And he’s not focused on making America better for the people at the bottom.”
Want to stay informed about the 2024 election? Sign up for USA TODAY’s On Politics newsletter.
Majority of Arizonans support abortion access, poll finds
More than half of Arizona voters (58%) said they would vote to uphold Arizona Proposition 139, a constitutional amendment that would create a fundamental right to abortion in the state.
Abortion and reproductive rights have been a key part of Harris’ campaign message. Last week, Harris restored abortion rights to Georgia after a ProPublica report that 28-year-old pregnant woman Amber Thurman died in the state due to doctors’ handling of the state’s new abortion regulations. asked to do so.
President Trump has repeatedly boasted that he helped end Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court overturned in 2022, and has said he wants states to decide abortion laws.
Shea Raskin of Scottsdale plans to vote yes to support Arizona’s amendment. The 33-year-old, who was unable to vote in the last election due to voter registration issues, plans to vote for Harris this election.
“I’m very concerned about women’s rights, including bodily autonomy,” she said, adding that she “looked forward to a bright future” with Harris as president.
Keck, a Trump supporter, said he is “pro-choice” and supports constitutional reform.
“I have two daughters and I want them to make the decision,” she said, adding that abortion is also necessary care for people with health problems and for people who have been raped. he added.
Keck also said that while women’s health is one of her top priorities, she hopes the discussion expands beyond abortion to include other areas of women’s health, such as childbirth. Ta. In 2017, Keck’s daughter was born at 32 weeks after experiencing a life-threatening pregnancy complication called HELLP syndrome. Keck and her daughter were hospitalized for two months.
“They don’t talk about the fact that childbirth is the number one killer of women,” Keck said. “What are they going to do with it?”
Economy, inflation is the biggest concern
According to the survey results, inflation and the economy were the top concern among respondents at 27%.
When asked about Arizona’s economic situation, 5% said it was good and 26% said it was good. “fair” and “poor” ratings were tied at approximately 33% each.
Overall, the majority of respondents (52%) said they were worse off than they were four years ago, and 39% said they were better off.
Trent Kay, 33, of Gilbert, a Phoenix suburb, said he is voting for Trump because he believes Republicans are better for the economy. Kay didn’t vote in the last election, but said she didn’t think it was that important at the time.
“Economics is a big thing for me. That’s a big slider for me,” Kaye said. “I feel like the other side has no understanding of what to do with the economy or how to handle foreign policy.”
But Waddell, who lives in Avondale, said Trump is focused on helping the wealthy, not the middle class.
“For the past four years, they have been trying to fix what has already happened,” she said. “We can’t go back to what’s already happened. We weren’t financially secure.”
Immigration is also a top priority
Immigration is also an important issue for Arizona voters, according to the survey, with 21% of voters in the border state saying immigration is their top issue.
President Trump has made immigration enforcement a mainstay of his campaign, saying he would reintroduce new and tougher policies, including hardline policies and mass deportations. The Biden administration has faced criticism for its response to the border after record levels of post-pandemic encounters. However, the number of migrants has fallen sharply in recent months.
Harris is scheduled to visit the Arizona border on Friday to talk about border security and push for a bipartisan border security bill that President Trump pressured Republicans to reject.
Tonya Neely, 51, of Florence, Arizona, said she believes Biden and Harris’ border policies are leaving the United States “vulnerable.”
“Joe and Kamala have done a terrible job of taking care of the people who live here,” said Neely, who was a 911 dispatcher with the Phoenix Police Department and retired in 2013 for health reasons.
But for some, their votes are focused on someone they believe will not challenge the values of the Democratic Party in this country.
Carlos Pacheco, 46, of Yuma, said he believes Harris is a smart, educated woman who “has her heart in the right place.”
Although she has concerns about some of her policies, such as the recently announced $25,000 down payment aid for first-time homebuyers, she has I think it’s the best option.
“In this election, my focus, at least how I vote and why I vote, is to maintain normal order and preserve democracy as we know it,” said a registered independent who voted. Pacheco said. Both Republicans and Democrats.
(This story has been updated to correct the error.)
