Think of this column as “Make or Break: Injury Edition.”
Week 7 was marred by injuries, and in many cases, those injuries didn’t give him the turnaround he needed to get off to a great start, even though he had more chances.
These injuries are a little different. Injuries have hit multiple teams, leaving big holes in the offense, but young talent is ready to step up and serve as a truly viable fantasy filler. However, when there are multiple options, some of the choices may not be clearly defined.
Who can you trust in Week 8?
San Francisco 49ers receiver corps: Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings
Week 7 was a nightmare for the 49ers. They started the game with a nearly full receiving corps with the exception of Jauan Jennings, but their day ended with Deebo Samuel hospitalized, Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, and George Kittle with a sprained foot. It’s hard to take meaningful points from the backup receiving corps’ fantasy production in Week 7, as Kansas City is giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. However, we can look at snap counts and route of participation to understand potential priorities for Week 8.
In his first game off IR, the 49ers wasted no time integrating Pearsall into the offense. Pearsall had the most snaps and route participation of all 49ers receivers, and was tied for the team lead with five targets with Brandon Aiyuk. Although the fantasy points weren’t impressive for Pearsall, the fact that he recognized such a significant workload right away instead of feeling comfortable as an inexperienced rookie was a great sign.
Jacob Cowing led the way in fantasy points, but had significantly lower snaps (only 12) and route runs (only 8). Second-year receiver Ronnie Bell saw some use, and veteran Chris Conley also played very well. None of these players are reliable fantasy options. That leaves Pearsall and Jennings, who was inactive in Week 7.
If Jennings is active this week, he could have a strong play. He stepped up in Deebo Samuel’s absence and showed off in Week 3 with an impressive 11 receptions, 175 yards, and three touchdowns. Of course, his hip injury requires attention (he was held out of practice on Wednesday).
Will Jennings and Pearsall make or break the Week 8 lineup?
There are several factors when it comes to Jennings vs. Pearsall. We know Aiyuk is out, but Kittle and Samuel remain unknowns. Samuel was kind enough to let the young fantasy manager know he’s okay, but I don’t know if that’s especially true this week.
If Samuel can’t suit up, both a healthy Jennings and Pearsall will potentially lean toward strong flex options. If Samuel manages to play this week, there will only be one strong play left at receiver. San Francisco’s WR3 isn’t usually a viable option. If Jennings returns this week, he would likely be the group’s most reliable receiver given his established chemistry and trust with Brock Purdy. Closely monitor practice reports.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan, WR, Bucky Irving, RB
Going forward, Tampa Bay’s receiving corps isn’t as defined as the 49ers’. While a proven turnaround and route participation are strong indicators for the 49ers, the Bucks’ offense moving forward is a wild card. Due to the unknowns, fantasy managers may be tired of playing receiver for the Bucs this week. But the matchup is great and Baker Mayfield absolutely handles it, so this receiving corps has upside.
It’s just a matter of how reliable you are.
The Bucs’ three-headed monster RB committee will likely see an increase in receptions as well. The Bucs’ usage, although a clear committee, confirms that Rashard White is still the lead back. Despite White’s strong performance, Irving could still be a strong contributor. The beauty of Irving is that he’s not locked into a specific role. He’s a 3-down back and the Bucs could use him similar to White.
The Bucs’ volume will likely increase, but someone needs to step up in the receiving corps. Sterling Shepard has seen an uptick in trade over the past few weeks, but Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer haven’t been affected. Shepard probably has the safest floor and will be the player with the most reliable snap numbers, but at this point in his career, Shepard doesn’t have a huge plus factor. McMillan was introduced earlier this season and is the player who makes the most sense to have a higher ceiling.
Will McMillan and Irving make or break the Week 8 lineup?
McMillan is an incredibly dangerous player. Even in good matchups, he has the potential to be a bust. The reliability of the flex pivot here is to increase the amount of passes to the running backs, and Irving could benefit greatly. Despite playing in reverse and having poor chemistry last week, the three-player committee had a very productive back two in White and Irving. Although neither had strong performances on the ground, improved receiving was key to this success, with both backs combining for over 100 receiving yards. Irving has advantages in all formats, but is especially strong in PPR.
Jackson Smith-Ngiba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The good news is: If DK Metcalf is unable to adjust in Week 8, Smith-Njiba has a chance to step up as the Seahawks’ WR1. The bad news is that there is no guarantee that the amount of Smith-Niziva will increase significantly. . Last week was a week with Geno Smith’s usual lackluster pass attempts. He typically throws well over 30, often over 40, and sometimes around 50, so the volume is usually there and distributed pretty evenly over the past few weeks.
The bad news is that targeting wasn’t an issue for Smith-Njiba. Metcalf is averaging 8.7 rebounds per game, Smith-Nijiva is averaging 7.9 and Tyler Lockett is averaging 6.6. The next receiver, Jake Bobo, averages just 1.6. Despite his target volume, Smith-Nijiva has only one top-12 finish dating back to Week 2 and hasn’t finished inside the top-30 since then. He has just one touchdown all season.
Basically, the opportunity was there, but he hasn’t taken advantage of it consistently.
Will Smith and Nijiba make or break the lineup for Week 8?
This week’s matchup is against Buffalo. Buffalo’s defense is more vulnerable on the ground than in the air, so from a game plan standpoint, the Seahawks will rely more on Kenneth Walker III than attacking Buffalo’s secondary. However, if Seattle’s defensive struggles turn the game into a shootout, the amount of material in the air could increase, potentially giving JSN more avenues for targets.
Even if the matchup isn’t great, this week is a high ceiling for Smith vs. Nijiba.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Kmet is not on injured reserve, but no tight end better embodies this make-or-break player. Kmet will either finish as a TE1 overall or score 5 fantasy points. There is no in between. Kmet’s strong games of 21 and 22 fantasy points came in great matchups against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, but he also had two lackluster performances against Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams.
The problem is that the Bears’ offense has too many mouths with DJ Moore, Roma Odunze, Keenan Allen, and D’Andre Swift. Kmet is understandably at the bottom of the pecking order, making him a highly volatile asset. This week’s matchup with Washington will be interesting. At the beginning of this season, the managers were thought to be a vulnerable defense, but they are heading in the right direction under a defensive-minded head coach.
Will Kmet make or break the Week 8 lineup?
On the surface, Washington is not a good opponent for a tight end. They have conceded just 7.71 points per game to this point. But when you look at the teams they played against, the numbers start to make more sense. In Week 2, they faced the Giants, who had no real threat at tight end. Other matchups included Cincinnati and Arizona, both without Trey McBride. The points allowed to tight ends may be a little skewed.
If you’re in a position where you need high upside play at tight end this week, Kmet could be a hit.
