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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump are in even closer races in battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin than they were just seven weeks ago, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College. .
Polls show that Harris’ lead since early August has been slightly chipped away by Trump’s continued strength on economic issues, with the economy still the most important issue driving voters. When you think about it, it’s a potentially troubling development for the vice president.
With less than 40 days left until Election Day, the race is nearly even in Michigan, with Harris receiving 48% support and Trump 47% among likely voters, with poll errors likely to be a factor. Within range. In Wisconsin, where polls have a history of overestimating support for Democrats, Ms. Harris holds 49% to Mr. Trump’s 47%.
The poll also found that Harris leads Trump by 9 points in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and that her lone electoral vote could determine the Electoral College decision. . One possible scenario is that Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, giving Trump control of Sunbelt battleground states where the Times-Siena poll shows her in favor. In that case, the district could give Harris exactly the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. First.
(There have been many close elections in recent memory, but never one in which the polls were this close, writes Nate Cohn.)
The Times and Siena College also tested the presidential race in Ohio, which is not considered a White House battleground but has one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Trump leads by 6 points in Ohio, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads his Republican opponent Bernie Moreno by 4 points.
Wisconsin has looked like a bright spot for Democrats on the presidential battleground map for months, but four of the past six races, including 2020, have been decided by less than a point. did. The following year, Biden won Michigan by 3 points. In 2016, Trump held this position by three-tenths of a point.
While Trump remains widely disliked, Harris faces challenges attracting voters who are disinclined to support the former president, according to interviews with those surveyed.
“I’m not a happy camper,” said Matt Henderson, 65, a maintenance worker for a local power company in Westland, Michigan. He said he would vote for Harris not because he was politically attracted to her, but for the following reasons: Prevent Trump from returning to power.
“Jean. June 6, 2021 proved he is a traitor,” Henderson said. “He doesn’t care about anything but himself. He tried to steal the election.”
According to the poll, 80% of black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio planned to vote for Harris, while 13% planned to vote for Trump. An additional 7% of black voters said they did not know how to vote. Harris has an overwhelming lead among black voters, but her 80% lead is lower than the number Biden won nationally four years ago.
(Follow the latest polls to see the latest voting averages for the Harris vs. Trump matchup.)
Antonio Dawkins, 40, a regional sales manager from Waukesha, Wis., a suburb of Milwaukee, said he plans to vote but will leave his presidential candidate blank. He doesn’t like Trump, but he also has complaints about Harris.
“It’s like she’s trying to use a car salesman’s pitch to sell everyone that she’s not Trump, but that’s not enough,” said Dawkins, who is Black. “She says a lot of things that sound good while leaving out details. I think that’s why they call it that — no meat and potatoes.”
The poll results echo a recurring theme among voters in battleground states. Many people tend to believe that Trump’s tenure has helped people like them, and worry that Harris’ policies will hurt people like them.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters are almost equally likely to say Harris’ policies will help and hurt, 41% to 40%. But 46% of voters in both states said people would like Trump’s policies more.
But when voters in Michigan and Wisconsin were asked a direct question about which candidate they trusted more to “help people like you,” Harris had a slight advantage. , suggesting that voters draw subtle distinctions between the two candidates. and their policies.
Voters in each state were also similar in which candidate they trusted more to help the working class.
Abortion was the second most important issue for voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, after the economy, with 18% saying it was the central choice. This is an increase from May, when 13% of voters in both states said abortion was their top issue.
On abortion, voters in Michigan favored Harris over Trump by 20 points and in Wisconsin by 13 points. But Wisconsin is down from its 22-point advantage in August. In Michigan, Harris’ abortion numbers have remained largely unchanged.
Trump’s biggest weakness has to do with his decorum. In Wisconsin, 55% of undecided and persuasive voters cited his conduct, integrity and ability as president as their main concerns. In Michigan, the number was even lower at 47%.
“He’s divisive, he’s violent, he’s mean,” said Leslie McKenzie, 64, an executive assistant in Southfield, Michigan. I mean, it’s completely crazy,” she added. “He’s kind of stuck in a pigsty. He comes up with crazy things every day. I don’t think he’s all together. If he is, damn it.”
The key group of voters who could decide the election – Americans who are undecided and persuasive – has shrunk slightly since August as they begin to make up their minds.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters were concerned about both candidates but were leaning slightly toward Harris. About a third said their main concern about Trump was his personality, while 12% were worried about whether he could actually do the job and 8% were worried about his honesty and integrity. is holding.
Nathan Booth, 27, a surgical resident in suburban Detroit, called Trump’s debate performance this month “embarrassing.” Dr. Booth said he voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 because of the actions of the Republican president.
Despite this sentiment, Dr. Booth said he is still likely to vote for Trump this year because he is dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the economy.
“Over the past three years, my purchasing power has declined,” he said. “We have less money than we used to, and I think the majority of people who earn less than $100,000 feel the same way.”
Fewer undecided and persuadable voters had concerns about Harris’ personality or temperament. In Michigan and Wisconsin, only 10 percent said their character or judgment was their main concern, and 19 percent were concerned about her honesty and integrity.
The poll also provides insight into how the vice presidential candidates are viewed in the Midwest, particularly in Ohio, the home state of Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate.
In the three states surveyed, 49% of voters considered Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, honest and trustworthy, compared to 45% for Vance. Walz was also considered more honest and trustworthy in Ohio.
Mr. Walz was seen as more caring across the Midwest, but slightly more voters in Ohio saw Mr. Vance as someone who “cared about people like me.”
Polls show concerns about immigration are more prevalent in Ohio, and Vance and Trump have amplified false claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield are killing and eating pets. It is attracting attention.
Ohio voters were less likely than neighboring states like Michigan and Wisconsin to say that America’s generosity toward people around the world is essential to us as a nation, but a majority of voters in the state still thinks so.
Here’s what’s important to know about these polls
From September 21 to 26, 2024, interviewers interviewed 688 likely voters in Michigan, 687 likely voters in Ohio, 680 likely voters in Wisconsin, and 680 likely voters in Nebraska. We spoke to 680 likely voters in the House district.
The Times/Siena poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers in both English and Spanish. Overall, approximately 97% of respondents contacted these polls by mobile phone. Here you can see the exact questions asked and their order.
Voters for the survey are selected from a list of registered voters. This list includes information about the demographic characteristics of all registered voters, ensuring that you have the right number of voters for each party, race, and region. In these polls, interviewers made about 260,000 phone calls to just over 140,000 voters.
To further ensure that the results reflect the electorate as a whole, not just those willing to participate in the poll, we looked at underrepresented groups among survey respondents, such as those without a college degree. give more weight to respondents from certain demographic groups. Further information about respondent characteristics and weighted samples can be found under ‘Sample Composition’ at the bottom of the Results and Methodology page.
The margin of sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus 4 percentage points for each poll and about plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the three state polls combined. In theory, this means that the results should most often reflect the opinions of the entire population, but many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is calculated (such as a candidate’s lead in a race), the margin of error is doubled.
Complete results and detailed methodology can be found here. If you want to learn more about how and why the Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can find answers to frequently asked questions here or submit your own question.
