Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval rating among Hispanic voters is in dangerously low territory for Democrats, while her rival Donald Former President J. Trump remains strong in a fast-growing group. It plays an important role in determining the leadership of the White House.
Polls of likely Latino voters across the country show Harris has performed worse than the past three Democratic candidates for the White House and is weaker on key issues including the economy, immigration and crime. It turned out.
Trump, who shocked Democrats four years ago with his appeal to Latinos, especially men, has only tightened his grip on them, even though he ended his campaign with a harsh anti-immigrant message.
Polls have found that these escalating attacks on immigrants have not drawn Latino voters to Harris. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they believed Trump was not referring to people like them when he talked about immigrants. (Half of foreign-born Hispanic voters also agreed.)
The findings highlight the status of Latinos as critical swing voters in presidential politics. The last Democratic Party whose support among Latino voters fell below 60% was John Kerry, who lost office in 2004. More than a decade ago, about 70% of Latino voters supported President Barack Obama’s reelection. Since then, Trump has been losing support.
Both parties have been actively reaching out to Hispanic voters this year, and surveys suggest that voters’ choices may still change, with about a quarter saying they are “lost” or “convinced.” ”, which was slightly higher than the overall electorate. Undecided voters are leaning toward Harris.
The poll, conducted between September 29 and October 6 among 902 likely Hispanic voters, shows significant signs of support for Trump’s most aggressive immigration policies. . More than a third of Hispanic voters say they support both policies and building a wall along the length of the United States. – Deport immigrants who border Mexico and are in the United States illegally. Most of that support comes from Trump supporters, but 9% of Harris supporters also agree. Support for such policies came primarily from U.S.-born Latinos.
Roughly 4 in 10 Hispanic voters say they don’t take the former president’s words too seriously, and half of men say people take his words too seriously.
Jesse Saucedo, 39, a long-haul truck driver from Houston, said he voted for Obama but is almost certain he will vote for Trump in November. He said Democrats believe the “weaponization of government” against the former president has gone too far. Saucedo said he never paid close attention to politics until Trump took the White House.
“I’ve heard a lot of people say he’s a racist, but I honestly don’t think he’s a racist,” Saucedo said. “Everything was taken out of context.”
A majority of Hispanic voters (55%) say there are good reasons for people to be offended by Trump’s comments.
Polls show that Latino voters, like other demographic groups, are highly divided by gender. Hispanic men are much more likely to support Trump than Hispanic women.
The survey suggests Trump is disenfranchising a small but important segment of voters who chose President Biden in 2020, with 9% of Biden voters surveyed saying they would vote for Trump this year. I answered. Hispanic voters who did not vote at all in 2020 were more likely than other voters to say they would vote for Trump.
Judith Camacho, a 28-year-old teacher from Kirtland, New Mexico, who plans to vote for Trump, has no intention of condoning illegal immigration because she fears some immigrants coming to the U.S. will cause harm. said.
“I have family members who entered the country illegally in the past, and I can’t say that what they did was right,” she says.
Expressing their frustration, an overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters said the U.S. political and economic system needs major changes or needs to be completely dismantled. Those who say the system needs to be abolished are likely to support Trump.
Less than a third of Latino voters say they believe Trump cares more about people like them than Harris does, a lower percentage than those who plan to vote for her. Among her supporters, 80% said they care about people like them, far less than the 92% of Ms. Harris who said the same about her.
For many Hispanic voters, the Democratic Party remains home, even as it shows it is not directly helping them. About 57% say Democrats understand their problems and can solve them.
Less than half say Democrats are more likely than Republicans to keep their promises. Additionally, 35% of Americans view the Republican Party as the party of the working class, up from 27% two years ago.
Still, far more voters say the Republican Party is too far to the right than say the Democratic Party is too far to the left.
“The Republican Party is out of control,” said Raymond Islas, 58, a novelist and high school teacher in Tucson, Arizona. He recently registered as an independent because he was dissatisfied with both major political parties.
He said he would reluctantly vote for Harris. “They’re too far to the right, and the rhetoric they’re spewing is frightening,” he said of Republicans.
Polls show that Hispanic voters remain favorable toward the Trump administration and are less enthusiastic about the current White House. Latino voters were more likely to believe that Mr. Trump’s policies would help them than they were to say that Mr. Biden’s policies would be helpful.
The gap was especially stark among young Latino voters, who were more than twice as likely to say Trump’s policies helped them compared to Biden’s.
Ricardo Sanchez, a 20-year-old security guard in Stockton, Calif., of Salvadoran and Mexican heritage, said he believes former President Trump is putting the American people first over sending money overseas to help with conflicts. He said he will vote for Trump because he believes in him. In Ukraine and Gaza.
Sanchez said he knows he’s out of sync with many of his Gen Z friends, but he believes Trump is the candidate who can best help bring about economic stability. He said the Democratic Party lacks common sense policy.
Sanchez said that while “the internet has branded President Trump a racist,” the former president’s intended message was to “take care of Americans and make us feel safe.” I considered it.
Polls show Trump supporters are twice as likely to think crime in big cities is out of control, while half of Harris voters say crime remains a major problem.
Nearly 3 in 10 Hispanic voters say the economy is the most important issue deciding their vote in November, far more than any other issue. Fifteen percent of voters ranked abortion as a top issue, slightly more than 10% of immigrants.
Nicole Jaramillo, 29, who considers herself an independent, said she struggles to make ends meet by working two jobs in Phoenix as a warehouse driver and a merchandiser for a beer company. .
Although she has never voted in a presidential election, she said she plans to vote for Harris this year because she believes the vice president will lower taxes and help improve lives and support families.
“She’s trying to make everyone grow and give all of us opportunities to grow,” she said.
Camille Baker and Christine Zhang contributed reporting.
Here’s what’s important to know about this Times/Siena poll:
Interviewers spoke to 902 Hispanic voters from September 29, 2024 to October 6, 2024 as part of a national poll of 3,385 voters.
The survey uses a polling technique known as oversampling and includes responses from more than three times as many Hispanic voters as a typical national survey. The purpose of oversampling is to ensure that subgroups such as Hispanic men and young Hispanic voters can be analyzed. This method does not affect the top-level results of the final vote. National polls are weighted to ensure that Hispanic respondents represent an appropriate percentage of the total electorate, ensuring that Hispanic opinions are not overrepresented in poll results.
As part of the hiring process, the Times and Siena College relied on approximately 50 bilingual interviewers. Overall, nearly 20% of interviews for respondents who self-reported as solely Hispanic were conducted in Spanish.
The Times/Siena poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers in both English and Spanish. Overall, approximately 98 percent of respondents in these polls were contacted by cell phone. Here you can see the exact questions asked and their order.
Voters for the survey are selected from a list of registered voters. This list includes information about the demographic characteristics of all registered voters, ensuring that you have the right number of voters for each party, race, and region.
To further ensure that the results reflect the electorate as a whole, not just those willing to participate in the poll, we looked at underrepresented groups among survey respondents, such as those without a college degree. give more weight to respondents from certain demographic groups. Further information about respondent characteristics and weighted samples can be found under ‘Sample Composition’ at the bottom of the Results and Methodology page.
The margin of sampling error for likely Hispanic voters is plus or minus 4.5 points. In theory, this means that the results should most often reflect the opinions of the entire population, but many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is calculated, such as a candidate’s lead in a race, the margin of error is doubled.
Complete results and detailed methodology can be found here. If you’d like to learn more about how and why we conduct surveys, you can find answers to frequently asked questions or submit your own question here.
