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Andrew Feinberg
white house correspondent
Vice President Kamala Harris will face off against Donald Trump in less than 34 days as Americans vote in the 2024 election.
Following last night’s vice presidential debate, viewers weren’t enamored with either candidate’s performance, but J.D. Vance outperformed expectations and topped Tim Walz.
Pre-debate polls showed that Vance’s popularity was at an all-time low, while Walz was more popular than all of the current vice presidential and presidential candidates. But last night’s showdown may add to Vance’s poor public perception.
Only 1% of voters said the debate changed their mind about how to vote. So what will happen to Harris and Trump in November?
The latest national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading Trump by 2.7 points. On average, Ms. Harris has been trailing Mr. Trump slightly in national polls in recent weeks.
Last night’s debate between Ohio Sen. Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz defied expectations. Gambling markets and preliminary polls are pointing to Waltz as the presumptive winner.
However, a public opinion poll conducted after the debate showed that viewers’ opinions were divided between the two candidates. And Vance actually led by a few points.
A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42% of viewers thought Vance would win the debate, compared to 41% for Walz.
But Mr. Walz emerged as someone more relatable to average Americans and more likely to share voters’ vision of America.
Click here for more post-debate poll analysis.
An exclusive Independent poll suggests the vice-presidential debate could influence the presidential election, but only one of last night’s viewers said it had changed their voting choice. It was %.
Likeability
Pre-debate analysis found that Walz outperformed Trump, Vance and even Harris in favorability ratings.
According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Walz has an overall favorability score of +3.7.
Although this percentage has decreased since he was elected vice president in August, his favorability rating remains positive overall.
Meanwhile, Vance’s average favorability score is -11, a significant drop from -3.3 when he was first selected in July.
It’s certainly possible that this discussion will help boost Vance’s otherwise poor public recognition.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, President Trump’s favorability score is also -9.6, while Prime Minister Harris has hit a positive score for the first time in more than three years.
The current favorable rating remains at +1.1, and the company has been at the break-even point since mid-September.
The September debate may have been a chance for Ms. Harris to change public perception and ultimately cultivate more favorable opinions of herself and her campaign.
Important issues for voters
The most important issue influencing how people vote in this election continues to be the economy, regardless of party affiliation.
Abortion is considered the second most important issue by 37% of voters, according to a poll of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies through Sept. 26. This is followed by immigrants at 34%.
But for those who voted for President Trump, these priorities are reversed.
Amid border security tensions and the debunking of Trump and Republicans’ recent claims about Haitian immigration, more than half of Trump voters (57%) think immigration is one of the biggest issues. are.
Interestingly, health care and abortion are tied as the next most important issues for Trump supporters, at 23% each.
Mr. Trump has advocated for overhauling Obamacare, but failed in his attempts during his presidency, and was unable to outline an alternative health care policy during September’s presidential debate.
Meanwhile, abortion is the top issue for Harris voters (55%). Following the reversal of Roe v. Wade, Harris herself was critical of the abortion ban.
Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40%), followed by housing (23%).
battleground states
Recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls in battleground states show Harris with an average lead of +3 points, ranging from even with Trump to a lead of +7 points.
The poll was conducted September 19-25 among more than 6,000 registered voters in battleground states, and the margin of error ranged from 1% to 4% in each state.
In Pennsylvania, where the first Harris-Trump presidential debate was held, Harris’ lead has increased from +4 points to +5 points since August.
The state tilted toward President Trump when President Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.
In Nevada, Harris leads Trump by 7 points, 52% to 45%.
In Georgia, the two candidates are tied with 49% each, and in Wisconsin, Ms. Harris’ 5-point lead narrowed her lead over Mr. Trump to 3 points.
Harris also holds a three-point lead over Michigan and Arizona, and a two-point lead over North Carolina.
The economy remains a top issue for voters in battleground states, but the perceived “capability gap” is narrowing. Forty-five percent of voters in battleground states think Harris can handle the economy well, just behind Trump’s 49%.
It’s worth noting that a separate New York Times poll earlier this month showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. This fluctuation indicates that swing states could still change by November.
Independent
A separate Morning Consult poll, conducted Sept. 20-22 among 11,000 voters nationwide, showed Harris with a 5-point lead overall.
The Tracker poll shows Harris with 46% of the elusive independent voters, to Trump’s 42% lead overall by 4 points.
However, this difference has remained unchanged since the same poll in mid-August, when Harris won 42% of the independent vote and Trump won 38% (a 4-point lead).
What has changed is that the number of independent voters who are undecided or voting for a third candidate has fallen from one in five (20%) to one in 10 (12%).
It is important to note that these undecided voters are independents who are more likely to vote. That means that once they make a choice, the odds are likely to shift in favor of one candidate or the other.
Interestingly, even with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump, 6 percent of independents still plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
With Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver still in the race, it remains to be seen how many independent votes he will be able to collect on Election Day.
Who will vote?
A YouGov/Economist poll shows Ms Harris with a 3-point lead among registered voters, with 47% to Mr Trump’s 44%. The poll showed a 25-point lead for Harris among young voters under 29.
However, according to the same poll, younger generations are the least likely to vote, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they “may vote,” and 3 percent saying they would not vote or I replied that I was still unsure. .
This equates to 16 percent who are unsure about voting or have not voted, higher than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65% of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they were sure to vote in November.
This compares to 77% of those aged 30 to 44, 85% of those aged 45 to 64, and 94% of those aged 65 and older.
While the numbers may seem dire and represent some hesitation among young voters, the overall picture is far more interesting than in 2020.
The same YouGov/Economist poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third (27%) of young people are not keen to vote in November, with 10% saying they “might” vote. 17% said they would definitely/probably not vote. vote.
Arizona: Important Issues
In Arizona, a historically Republican state with 11 electoral votes that flipped to Biden in 2020, polls show an inconsistent lead between Harris and Trump. Shown.
The Trump campaign has made frequent stops in the state over the summer.
In Arizona, which borders Mexico, one in five voters (19%) say immigration is the most important issue influencing their vote, according to the same poll. .
This is second only to the economy, which is the biggest issue affecting voters across the state and nationwide.
A majority of Arizona voters (51%) believe Trump is capable of handling key issues, a trend that has reversed since August, when confidence in Harris was slightly higher. .
This suggests that despite overall enthusiasm for Harris’ debate performance, Arizona voters may still support Trump and his approach to key issues. As a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.
demographics
A separate poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College in September found Trump and Harris deadlocked nationally, with each winning 47% of the likely vote.
This is a slight change from the same poll in early September, which unexpectedly showed Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by +2 points.
A new poll of 2,437 likely voters conducted after the September debate found that 67% of respondents said Harris did well in the debate, compared to 67% who said that President Trump did well. 40% of respondents thought the same.
Harris maintains a commanding lead among women (12 points), while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.
In particular, Ms. Harris increased her approval rating among people under 34 years old after the debate, and her vote share increased by 7 percentage points to 58%, giving her a 21-point lead over Mr. Trump.
Meanwhile, her lead among the 30-44 age group has narrowed, leaving her with Trump by just 4 points. However, Trump’s lead in the 45-64 age group also narrowed to just 2 points.
Join The Independent’s experts to understand the US election in The Independent’s exclusive virtual event, ‘Harris vs Trump: Who will make history?’ Reserve your space here.
An early September poll showed Harris with a 12-point lead among white college-educated voters. After the debate, this group made the most significant gains, giving Harris a 25-point lead with 61% of the vote.
Interestingly, a New York Times pre-debate poll found that nearly a third (28%) of voters felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to 9% about Trump. It has been shown that they think they are the same.
But a New York Times poll found that half of voters (50%) felt they “learned a lot” about Harris during the debate, while only three said the same about Trump. In this respect, the debate was beneficial to Harris. .
CNN polling after the first Trump-Harris debate showed that Harris had succeeded in turning the tide with support from some voters.
Following the debate, more voters believe that Harris (44%) understands the issues of people like them better than Trump (40%). Before the debate began, the opposite was true.
Join The Independent’s experts to understand the US election in The Independent’s exclusive virtual event, ‘Harris vs Trump: Who will make history?’ Reserve your space here.
