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A sprint finish to the starting line begins.
It’s not a sprint finish to the finish line, it’s a sprint finish to the starting blocks.
The next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen by Conservative members, but he will only be able to choose from the two finalists selected by Tory MPs on Wednesday afternoon.
At this point, there are claims of conspiracies, conspiracies, phone calls, quiet chats, speculation, and underhanded tactics.
“We’re really heading into the season finale,” one Conservative MP told me.
You may be thinking this. Please brace yourself. This is the vote that will decide the final two candidates to become opposition leader next month.
It’s not exactly a race to the White House.
But nevertheless, it is a moment of crisis.
There are three remaining candidates – James Cleverley, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch – but only two golden tickets.
Learn more about the three projects currently underway.
A notable development in Tuesday’s voting was that James Cleverley not only moved into the lead, he led by several miles.
He received 39 votes, a number even some in his own camp admitted was a little higher than expected.
His performance was based on making the most of last week’s conference speech and effectively marshalling a significant number of MPs who had previously supported former Cabinet minister Mel Stride.
In a race with a total of 121 votes, if all Conservative MPs voted, 41 votes would be enough to guarantee a place in the final two. Because neither rival can surpass you.
(Incidentally, we hear that outgoing leader Rishi Sunak did not vote, meaning there were 120 actual voters).
Top candidate James Cleverley
In any case, assuming there is no turning back, Cleverley is almost there.
The basic premise of every campaign is that he makes the last pair.
The battle for second place is currently between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.
Jenrick came second in this latest round of voting with 31 votes, but lost two votes from the previous vote.
Mr Badenoch came in third place with 30 votes, just one vote behind, but received two votes.
And, following the widely expected ouster of former security minister Tom Tugendhat, there are now 20 votes for a new position.
It may not seem like a big number, but 20 is a significant number in 121 constituencies.
“James is irrelevant now. It’s all about us and Chemi’s team now,” said a Team Jenrick source.
“Tom’s supporters are closer to our side than she is,” they added.
“Eventually we will come out ahead.”
It was a characteristic burst of confidence from Jenrick’s camp, which has exuded plenty of confidence throughout.
But all this is not lacking in psychology either. When you’ve just fallen from the top and just managed to fall back, you may need an outward boost of confidence.
high stakes race
Badenoch’s supporters admit they would have liked to have seen her do better in the latest round.
But they believe there is a group of Tugendhat supporters who really don’t like Jenrick’s claim last week that British special forces are “killing terrorists rather than capturing them” because of the European Convention on Human Rights. There is.
They particularly disliked the use of footage of Tugendhat’s former army comrades, who later died, in a campaign video.
“Rob is in trouble,” predicts, or hopes, one lawmaker.
So the situation is uncertain, competitive and close.
Conservative MPs will need to decide who they really don’t want as leader and consider how their members will vote for different combinations of candidates.
The website ConservativeHome predicts that Kemi Badenoch has a chance of beating James Cleverley, although James Cleverley currently has a chance of beating Robert Jenrick among the members.
“So if MPs want to prevent Cleverley from winning, it seems best to support Badenoch.
“And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick will beckon,” ConservativeHome says.
It makes my head spin.
No wonder rumors spread that all sorts of dangerous pollies have been and may continue to take place.
Team Badenoch hotly debates her seeming popularity among party members.
But they know some members of Congress don’t want her as their leader.
“What would members say if they had to vote for two people they didn’t want?” says one person.
“It’s going to be like Liz and Rishi when members wanted Penny vs. Chemi,” they added, adding that the 2022 competition will feature Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. , referring to Cleverley v. Jenrick’s predictions. off.
It makes me wonder how the party will react if Badenoch is rejected by MPs.
It may not be very beautiful.
So the stakes are high as the Conservatives approach their biggest moment since July’s disastrous general election defeat.
