College football’s Week 5 action kicks off this weekend on Saturday night, with No. 7 Miami hosting Virginia Tech in the ACC conference opener.
Miami has scored 40 or more points in every game this season and 50 or more points in three games, is fifth in the nation with an average of 52.3 points per game and ranks second in the FBS with an average of 405 passing yards behind quarterback Cam Ward.
Virginia Tech is 10 points away from an undefeated record despite losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers, and it has the 98th-best passing offense in the country, nine points better than opponents it has faced so far this season.
Ahead of this week’s matchups, check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics for both teams to predict the outcome based on the expected point differential per game.
The index has a clear advantage in this match, favoring the home team.
The latest computer projections this week had Miami emerging as the favorite to win the championship with an overwhelming 90.2 percent.
That means the remaining 9.8 percent of simulations project Virginia Tech to win.
According to the model, Miami University is projected to be 20.2 points better than Virginia Tech on the same field.
If so, that will be enough to cover the spread this week.
That’s because Miami is favored by 19 points against Virginia Tech, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook line.
Bookmakers were offering Miami money line odds of -1000 to win and Virginia Tech money line odds of +700 to win.
FanDuel listed the game’s total score at 54.5 points.
FPI projects Miami to win 11.2 games this season and have the best chance in the ACC of qualifying for the College Football Playoff at 68.2 percent.
According to FPI’s metrics, Virginia Tech is ranked 10th among ACC teams with a 0.7% chance of making the playoffs and is projected to win 5.6 games this season.
The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and score projections are based on 20,000 simulations of team seasons and games, combining key analytics such as previous scores, opponent quality, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.
Teams are ranked not by talent order like other rankings, but by their expected points differential per game against an average team on a neutral field.
The number in brackets is the first place vote.
Texas (44) Georgia (13) Ohio State (5) Alabama Tennessee Ole Miss Miami Oregon Pennsylvania State University Utah Missouri Michigan State University Louisville Notre Dame Clemson Iowa State University Illinois Oklahoma State University Oklahoma Bridgestone University Kansas State University Texas A&M University Boise State University
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Game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.
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