CNN —
October’s surprises come at a dizzying pace. But the question is whether deep crises at home and abroad can break up the close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in an election already marked by great turmoil.
The White House is grappling with three challenges that threaten the vice president’s hopes and could open up the narrative of Biden-era inaction by the Republican nominee. A month before Election Day, the United States faces the serious possibility of being drawn into a Middle East conflagration. The longshoremen’s strike could hurt consumers weary of inflation. And political pressure is mounting in the aftermath of Hurricane Helen.
Meanwhile, President Trump was shocked Wednesday with the release of a 165-page document by special counsel Jack Smith detailing his case in the 2020 federal election interference case. The former president has maintained his innocence, but the charges come in the frenzied final stages of a campaign shaped in part by Democratic claims that he poses an existential threat to American democracy. , reinjecting his attempt to steal the last election.
Each situation highlights potential vulnerabilities in both candidates as voters make their decisions. The three challenges facing Harris could have economic, political and humanitarian consequences if the administration gets it wrong. And the renewed scrutiny of President Trump’s actions after the 2020 election could once again cause some voters to question his suitability for the Oval Office.
One of the most disconcerting aspects of the 2024 election is that a former president accused of trying to overturn the last election has an even chance of winning this one.
The depth of Trump’s election theft conspiracy is revealed in Smith’s filing, which alleges that Smith “made extensive use of private actors and election infrastructure in an effort to overturn the election results.” . Smith added that Trump “acted in his private capacity as a presidential candidate,” seeking to circumvent a Supreme Court ruling this summer that granted presidents broad immunity for official actions.
In one of the most damning parts of the filing, Smith said he has evidence that the then-president told his family that “it doesn’t matter whether you win or lose the election.” You still have to fight hard. ”
Trump has falsely claimed that all of his legal revelations prove that the Biden administration is weaponizing justice against Trump to interfere in this election. “President Trump is in the lead, much to the dismay of radical Democrats across the deep state,” campaign spokesman Stephen Chan said.
President Trump also encouraged fellow Republicans to adopt false claims of fraud in 2020. During Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance couldn’t bring himself to publicly say that his boss lost the last election.
Republican voters appear willing to accept President Trump’s false claims, but the events of four years ago still weigh heavily on the minds of voters in battleground states, and Smith’s unsealed documents raise questions about how deeply events from four years ago still weigh on the minds of voters in battleground states. However, it remains unclear how much, if any, it will influence the election campaign.
In some ways, Harris’ biggest vulnerability may be that the post-pandemic normalcy that Joe Biden promised to restore in 2020 has yet to materialize, while Republicans… They claim that the Democratic Party’s leadership is inferior due to a series of events both domestically and internationally.
A long-feared war between Iran and Israel could push the United States into combat with Tehran and put Americans at risk after more than four decades of proxy hostilities. The resulting energy crisis could send gas prices soaring and crush Harris’ financial credentials. The port closures have left the government torn between its support for labor unions and the urgent need to prevent supermarket shortages and price hikes. Meanwhile, Helen was the second deadliest hurricane to hit the continental United States in the past 50 years, after Katrina in 2005, and is a symbol of how mishandled natural disasters can cause political chaos. It became something to do.
“Look at the world today. Look at the missiles flying in the Middle East right now. Look at what is happening in Russia/Ukraine. Look at the inflation that is destroying the world. Nothing like this happened when it was!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday. His claims ignore the everyday disruptions that raged during his tenure. But unlike in 2020, when the response to the coronavirus crisis failed, Trump is not the incumbent, and his post could provide a crisp electoral argument against the current administration. The escalation of the crisis could also allow Mr. Trump to revive one of the key themes of his campaign: that he is strong and that Ms. Harris and Mr. Biden are weak.
Any issue looming over the White House race could fall under the clichéd October surprise. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of this campaign, as there are many twists and turns that have not yet had a decisive impact. For example, Trump was convicted and escaped two assassination attempts. The incumbent president, who is running for re-election, abandoned his campaign months before Election Day.
Still, after Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate, there are no set pieces expected to turn the campaign around. This means that effectively navigating an actual crisis may become even more important.
In theory, any development could carry outsized significance among perhaps hundreds of thousands of voters in the handful of battleground states that will decide this election. Some national polls show Harris with a narrow lead, but most polls in battleground states show no clear leader or margin of sampling error.
Weeks after an election, it’s hard to imagine an intangible situation less welcome than the regional security crisis in the Middle East that has puzzled U.S. presidents for decades.
Following Israeli ground attacks in Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and following months of war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip following Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, the region has become even more in danger. The United States and its allies helped repel a ballistic missile attack by Iran on Israel this week, but the focus comes after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tehran that nothing is beyond the reach of Israeli forces. has moved on to Israel’s response.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters in Israel and the United States are urging him to take advantage of the Islamic Republic’s moment of weakness after Israeli forces succeeded in eliminating key leaders of an Iranian proxy group. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran had made a big mistake in retaliating and would “pay the price for it,” raising hopes for further escalation.
But Biden took the highly unusual step Wednesday of publicly warning Israel against any attempt to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Asked about the possibility of such an operation, he said “the answer is no” and said the United States would consult with the Israeli side on how to respond.
But Biden’s problem is that Netanyahu has developed a habit of ignoring U.S. concerns about his actions in Gaza and Lebanon. This undermined administrative authority. But Israeli leaders are also acting in the hope that the U.S. government will be forced to defend Israel in any case.
There is also a significant political dimension to the worsening tensions. President Trump and his allies are promoting Prime Minister Netanyahu because of his ideological synergy with his far-right government and perhaps a heightened sense of crisis, raising hopes for the former president to win a non-consecutive second term. Probably because it’s possible. Israel’s military actions, which have killed thousands of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, also threaten to widen divisions within the Democratic Party over Harris and Biden’s failure to rein in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For example, some regional leaders have warned that progressive and Arab American voter turnout will be weak in key battleground states, including Michigan, next month.
Approximately 50,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) are on strike at East Port and ports along the Mexican Gulf coast, disrupting the flow of U.S. imports and exports.
If parts are delayed, U.S. factories could be shut down. Shortages of retail goods could also cause prices to soar, reminding Americans of the worst inflation crisis that Trump has blamed on Biden and Harris. The government may have some leeway. The immediate impact of a wage strike may be mitigated if goods that have already been shipped are stored. However, political pressure for a solution will increase day by day.
Biden, in the twilight of a political career defined by his respect for unions, has said he has no intention of using his authority to end the suspension. He and Harris have argued that collective bargaining is the best way to end the conflict.
President Trump’s efforts to transform the Republican Party and engage blue-collar workers are reflected in his calls for workers to be given the opportunity to negotiate better wages. A more traditional Republican candidate might have sided with port and shipping companies. But the former president also tried to convince voters that Harris was to blame for the impasse.
The Democratic candidate said Wednesday the strike was about “fairness” and the right of longshoremen to share in shipping companies’ vast profits. He also warned that President Trump’s pro-labor comments were bogus. “Donald Trump…is trying to take us back to a time when workers didn’t have the freedom to organize,” she said, adding that the Republican candidate blocked overtime pay and supported union sabotage during his presidency. accused of doing so.
Still, the last thing Harris wants is a controversy, given polls showing Trump’s narrowing lead on the economy — consistently cited by voters as their top concern ahead of the election. That’s the problem I’m talking about.
The presidential administration is now acutely aware of the impression that it has failed Americans in the face of natural disasters.
So the vice president scrambled Wednesday to cushion the political fallout from Hurricane Helen’s aftermath. The hurricane caused severe flooding, including parts of the battleground states Georgia and North Carolina, and killed at least 189 people, with many more still missing. Harris flew to Augusta, Georgia, to assess the damage and provide updates on the federal government’s accelerating relief efforts. Biden, who surveyed the damage in North Carolina from above, asked the Pentagon to approve sending 1,000 active-duty troops to the state to join the hundreds of National Guard troops already involved.
But President Trump is already trying to manipulate the tragedy for political gain, accusing Biden of “sleeping” after the storm. The former president, remembered for his sloppy response to federal emergencies, also falsely said Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, was unable to contact the president.
“He’s lying, and the governor has told him he’s lying,” Biden said Monday. “I don’t care what he says about me. I care what he says and what he communicates to people in need,” the president said. “He’s implying that we’re not doing everything we can. We are. We are.”
The president’s anger was not simply a collection of frustrations with President Trump’s attempts to exploit Helen. It underscored the staying power of the former president’s signature move to reinvent reality. Four years ago, Biden thought he had eradicated it for good. But President Trump is still using the chaos to his advantage.
