A few weeks ago, Donald Trump delivered one of the most bizarre performances of the campaign. This may or may not constitute an October surprise, but it’s part of a series of oddities that certainly made for a surprising October. “Who the hell wants to hear the questions?” he yelled at a town hall in Pennsylvania after two attendees had an emergency. He then roamed the stage for nearly 40 minutes, swaying to music from a playlist that included “Ave Maria,” “YMCA” and “Hallelujah.”
President Trump has always given off an air of the 25th Amendment. But even by that standard, his behavior became eerily strange, raising new questions about his mental health and emotional stability. In recent weeks, he has said Haitian immigrants should be “deported back to Venezuela,” renamed the Jan. 6 uprising “Day of Love,” and mused about the size of Arnold Palmer’s genitals. and criticized Abraham Lincoln for not being “settled.” The Civil War (although he acknowledged that Lincoln was “probably” the greatest president). President Trump is reportedly increasingly canceling interviews due to fatigue. The number of gatherings held in 2024 was less than a quarter of the number in 2016.
Over time, Trump’s language became angrier, more simplistic, less focused, more violent, more profane. According to the Times, his rally speeches are on average about twice as long as in 2016, and he has taken the oath nearly 70 percent more often, which is linked to age-related declines in inhibitions. There is a possibility that it is. Since President Trump left office, health news site STAT has found that the use of extreme, binary language structures such as “always” and “never” may be a sign of cognitive decline and depression. It was reported that there was an increase of approximately 60%. And his speeches now include more negative and backward language. Trump himself feels obligated to address his derailed ramblings. “I do the weaving,” he said recently. “You talk about, say, nine different things, and they all come together beautifully.” Additionally, “English professors say, ‘This is the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen.’ ”
Joe Biden’s flaws have become apparent in part because he has always acted like a normal politician. But President Trump’s behavior has been so erratic for so long that it is difficult to distinguish true deterioration from routine fluctuations. On what basis do we judge unprecedented changes in public life? In the first half of this year, major U.S. newspapers published dozens more articles about Mr. Biden’s mental acuity than they had written about Mr. Trump in the past nine months, leading Democratic leaders to ultimately push Mr. Biden to seek a coalition government. He persuaded them to retreat for the sake of their country. Republican leaders will only reaffirm their allegiances in the face of the unraveling of their own candidates.
But a growing number of Americans appear to be concerned about President Trump’s age and cognitive abilities. More than six in 10 Wisconsin voters say Trump is too old to be president, according to a Marquette Law School poll. Nationally, about half of independents in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll say he doesn’t have the mental strength for the job. The problem is that after everything President Trump has said and done – slandering the military, flattering dictators, bragging about sexual assault, refusing to accept the election results – he is now the specter of a man who has lost even more control over his abilities. The question is whether or not it will move the action. voters.
The 2024 election campaign was unusual both in its focus on the health of the candidates and its relative indifference to the health of the population. Whether it’s due to pandemic fatigue or tired slogans about repealing Obamacare and Medicare for All, health care is less central to this election than any other in a generation. Bill Clinton fought for universal health care, and George W. Bush secured prescription drug coverage for seniors. Barack Obama oversaw passage of the Affordable Care Act, and Trump nearly engineered its repeal. Health care reform doesn’t seem to be on the horizon this year, despite President Trump’s “notion of a plan,” but something more fundamental is on the ballot. It is a system of government that makes health possible.
Shortly after the American Revolution, Benjamin Rush, a physician and signer of the Declaration of Independence, proposed a link between healthy government and healthy people. Rush argued that there was an “inseparable bond between moral, political, and physical well-being” and that “elected representative government is the most favorable choice” for both individual and social well-being. His claims appear to be borne out. Research increasingly supports the beneficial effects of democratic governance.
A recent study in The Lancet led by Thomas Bollyky, chair of global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, found that the strength of a country’s democracy is more important than the size of its economy for many health outcomes. This suggests that there is a possibility. On average, countries that transitioned from dictatorships to democracies saw almost immediate improvement, increasing life expectancy by more than two years within 10 years, while the opposite was true for countries transitioning from democracies to dictatorships. We got the results. Bolky estimates that in the decades between the collapse of the Soviet Union and President Trump’s slide down the golden escalator, democracy could have prevented about 16 million deaths from cardiovascular disease alone.
Democratic governments are accountable to people, and people want to be healthy. Health care is what economists call a “superior good,” meaning that as a society becomes richer, people demand more of it. Therefore, democracies spend more on health care than autocracies and are more likely to maintain access to health care even in economic downturns. Meanwhile, freedom of the press keeps people informed. The rule of law fosters innovation by curbing corruption and protecting intellectual property. And independent agencies check power and enforce regulations to promote clean water, breathable air, and safe food.
The real danger of a second Trump term is not that Trump is in decline. That means this time he’ll be surrounded by characters whose purpose is to embody, rather than suppress, his worst impulses. John Kelly, Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said the president is “certainly an authoritarian.” Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley warned that President Trump is “a fascist to the core.” A healthy democracy, like health, requires adherence to certain norms and behaviors, and the cost of neglect falls not only on sick politics but also on sick people. In both cases, it is better to promote prevention than hope for resuscitation. ♦
