I choose games during periods of momentum.
After a slow start, the pace of sports betting has picked up last week, going 8-6 against the spread and 12-2 straight up. My ATS record is now 46 wins, 43 losses, and 3 draws, and my straight-up record is 51 wins, 41 losses. I’ll take it.
This week will feature a number of notable games, including a rematch of last February’s Super Bowl in which the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers. This game will be played in San Francisco instead of a neutral site, giving the 49ers a big advantage. But is it enough to just choose them?
Read on to find out who I choose and all the other sports betting options. Today is the third Sunday in October, so we need to continue getting a better handle on the season. At least it certainly felt that way in Week 6. Let’s keep this momentum going.
All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Thursdays, 8:15pm ET (Prime Video)
This is Sean Payton coming back to play against his former team. But unlike those Saints teams, this Denver team has limited offense. They have a good defense, but will be without star corner Patrick Surtain. The Saints quarterback will be Spencer Rattler, who made his first start last week. He’s going to play some solid football here and the Saints will beat their former manager.
Pick: Saints 23, Broncos 16
BONUS: Matt Severance, who is 21-6 in Broncos games, shares his best bets for Week 7’s Thursday Night Football game. Severance is leaning towards total under, but who will they be backing? Find out here at Sportsline.
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Fubo)
This week’s dog game. Both teams have big problems, but at least the Patriots have an excuse to start a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye. Jacksonville ranks last in pass defense, so he might hit them with some big plays. But Jacksonville is the better team and Trevor Lawrence will play a little better.
Pick: Jaguars 29, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
This will be a long journey for a Seattle team that has lost three straight. The defense is struggling. That’s not a good thing against a good Atlanta offense. Expect a lot of points here as both quarterbacks play well. But Kirk Cousins is playing better for the Falcons.
Pick: Falcons 34, Seahawks 30
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills will play just one week after defeating the Jets. The Titans are coming off a tough loss at home to the Colts. While the Bills can put up points, their offense has been lackluster for much of the season. But I think Tennessee’s defense will keep the Titans in this game. It’s closer than expected.
Pick: Bills 23, Titans 17
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The battle for Ohio State wasn’t what we expected when the season started. The Browns are terrible offensively, while the Bengals struggle defensively. Something has to give here. I think Joe Burrow is playing well and the Bengals defense is going to continue what other defenses have done this season against the Browns, which will make Deshaun Watson struggle. I say it will happen. The Bengals win.
Designated players: Bengals 21, Browns 17
Sunday, 1pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This game features two of the league’s best young passers in CJ Stroud and Jordan Love. Both can put up big numbers in the passing game. The Texans are playing a series of road games and are in a tough situation. The Packers will get the most out of Love by winning the shootout against Stroud.
Pick: Packers 34, Texans 30
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Dolphins missed out on a much-needed bye, while the Colts are coming off a road win against the Titans. Anthony Richardson returns to the Colts as quarterback, while Tyler Huntley starts for the Dolphins. Both of these teams had problems defensively and couldn’t stop the run, so find a way for the Colts to excel in the run game.
Pick: Colts 21, Dolphins 17
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Vikings advance with a bye, and the Lions defeat the Cowboys on the road, taking first place in the division. The Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson to a broken foot, which will have a big impact on their pass rush. Look for Sam Darnold to pitch to Ustin Jefferson to spice it up. The Lions will likely get similar results with Jared Goff. It will be a fun game to watch, but the Vikings will win.
Pick: Vikings 31, Lions 26
Sunday, 1pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Eagles beat the Browns last week but weren’t playing well, while the Giants lacked offensive power in their loss to the Bengals. The Giants’ defense is playing well, but the Eagles’ offense is not. The Giants will get receiver Malik Nabors back for this game, which could be significant. The Giants won in an upset.
Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 20
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Rams had to get a bye due to injuries. The Raiders had lost two games in a row, and although their offense improved with quarterback Aidan O’Connell, they were unable to win. How will the Davante Adams trade affect this team? The Rams are the better team and Matt Stafford will be the better quarterback. The Rams take it.
Designated players: Rams 27, Raiders 19
Sunday, 4:05pm ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The game is characterized by two offense players who can score and two defense players who have issues. So look for a shootout of sorts between Jaden Daniels and Andy Dalton. I’m betting Daniels will ultimately get the most out of it as Washington bounces back from last week’s loss to the Ravens.
Pick: Commanders 35, Panthers 27
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Sunday, 4:25pm ET (Try Fox, fubo for free)
The Super Bowl rematch is an important game for both teams. The Chiefs have a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday, which negates that to some extent. The 49ers have struggled defensively, and that doesn’t look good against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are playing well defensively. That carries over when they win tough road games.
Designated players: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23
Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC, Fubo Free Trial)
The Jets made a move to acquire Davante Adams. If he plays, he should help the offense. The Steelers once again have quarterback issues, as Russell Wilson appears to be taking first-team reps. No matter who plays, the running game and defense will be key in this game for the Steelers. However, the Jets have good run defense back and Aaron Rodgers should do enough to win tough road games.
Pick: Jets 23, Steelers 17
Monday, 8:15pm ET (ESPN, try fubo for free)
This is a big game between the best teams in the league right now. Both offenses can rack up big points right away. This might be one of those games where the last team with the ball wins. I’ll be home Monday and I’ll try to win the shootout with Baker Mayfield.
Pick: Bucks 34, Ravens 31
Monday, 9pm ET (ESPN+)
The Chargers will be on the road for the second straight week after their win in Denver. The Cardinals will be at home for the first time in three weeks. Arizona is lacking on defense, and it shows every week, even when they play hard. I’m betting the Chargers will win on offense. As the Chargers’ defense continues to perform well, Kyler Murray won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Chargers 27, Cardinals 14
