The Prize in Economics is the only prize not bequeathed in Alfred Nobel’s will and was created in 1968 Jonathan Knackstrand
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Rounding out the season, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the Nobel Prize in economics on Monday, with nominees including experts in trust, the role of government and wealth inequality.
The winner of the prestigious award, last year won by American economist Claudia Goldin, will be announced at 11:45 a.m. (9:45 GMT).
Goldin was recognized for “improving our understanding of women’s labor market outcomes,” ironically making her one of the few women ever to receive the award.
Of the 93 recipients honored since 1969, only three have been women — Goldin in 2023, compatriot Elinor Ostrom in 2009, and French-American Esther Duflot in 2019.
“The general tendency in society to place greater emphasis on equality and diversity has expanded the research process,” Mikael Karlsson, an economics professor at Sweden’s Uppsala University, told AFP.
“However, this is not the criterion that is taken into account when assessing whether a scientific contribution is worthy of a Nobel Prize,” he argued.
His bet is that Japan’s Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Britain’s John H. Moore will win for their work on how small shocks affect business cycles, or that the Americans will win for their work on market design It is believed that Susan Athy will be the winner.
But what criteria should we use to predict Nobel Prize winners?
For Magnus Henreksson of the Stockholm Institute of Industrial Economics, the most obvious starting point is to look at the research interests of the committee that decides which candidates are suitable.
Its chairman specializes in development economics, but Henrekson said he doubted the field would be honored since it had only recently won an award.
“I think it’s unlikely that the same field would win an award two years in a row,” Henrekson said.
Frenchman Philippe Aghion and Americans George Loewenstein, Kenneth Rogoff, and Carmen Reinhart are often named as scholars deserving of this award.
Turkish-American Daron Acemoglu is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States and the author of several best-selling books, including “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty.” He is considered one of this year’s top names.
Acemoglu could be paired with Russian-American Andrei Shleifer.
It’s always difficult to predict winners, but online statistics platform Statista finds that by looking at past winners and the current state of economics research, “we can expect to win, if not win, a Nobel Prize.” “We now have a pretty good idea of the candidates who are likely to win a Nobel Prize during their career.” 2024.”
The group believes Acemoglu could be recognized for his “work on the long-term development of institutions that promote or impede economic growth.”
Other candidates include macroeconomists such as Frenchman Olivier Blanchard and Americans Larry Summers and Gregory Mankiw.
Economists working on wealth inequality have also come up in recent years, including France’s Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman, and French-American Emmanuel Saez.
Canadian-American anti-poverty policy expert Janet Currie is a favorite of Clarivate, an analysis group that monitors potential Nobel Prize winners based on citations.
It also singled out British-Indian Partha Dasgupta as a potential winner who will “integrate nature and its resources into the human economy.”
Paolo Mauro, a former member of the International Monetary Fund, was also nominated for “empirical research on the impact of corruption on investment and economic growth.”
The Economics Prize is the only Nobel Prize not among the original five, created in the will of Swedish scientist Alfred Nobel, who died in 1896.
Instead, this Nobel Prize was created in 1968 with a donation from the Swedish Central Bank, leading detractors to call it the “fake Nobel Prize.”
However, like other Nobel Prizes in Science, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences decides the winners and follows the same selection process.
The Economics Prize concluded this year’s Nobel Prize season, while the Physics and Chemistry Prizes recognized achievements in artificial intelligence, and the Peace Prize went to Nippon Hidankyo, a Japanese organization dedicated to the fight against nuclear weapons.
South Korea’s Han Kang won the literature award, making her the only female winner so far this year, while the medicine award celebrated discoveries in understanding gene regulation.
The Nobel Prize consists of a certificate, a gold medal, and a one-time payment of $1 million.
They will be awarded at ceremonies in Stockholm and Oslo on December 10, the anniversary of the death of scientist and prize founder Alfred Nobel in 1896.
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