In recent decades, the rapid increase in housing prices has intensified the challenges of accessing homeownership and has significantly contributed to the surge in housing inequality across many countries, such as the United States, Australia, China, and several European countries (Lersch and Dewilde, 2015; Li and Wei, 2020; Pfeffer and Waitkus, 2021; Zheng et al., 2023). The analysis of housing differentiation has become an important perspective for delving into social inequalities and has consequently received substantial scholarly attention (Arundel and Hochstenbach, 2020; Clark et al., 2021; Howard et al., 2023). However, individuals’ housing states are far from static and can change at different moments throughout their life course. For instance, two individuals of the same age renting dwellings may experience divergent trajectories, with one getting on the property ladder soon while the other remaining trapped in the rental market for a prolonged period. Therefore, investigating the changing process of one’s housing career, rather than merely examining housing states at a specific time point, will significantly enhance our understanding of the dynamics of housing inequalities.
The concept of a housing career, which captures the variegated sequences of individuals’ housing states throughout their life course, has received scholarly attention in Western societies over the past few decades (Clark et al., 2003; Firang, 2019; Hassink and Zweerink, 2021; Özüekren and Van Kempen, 2002; Skobba, 2023). Although numerous studies have explored the impact of individual factors on housing careers, the predominant focus has been on factors achieved through personal efforts, such as income and occupation. This emphasis often neglects the influence of factors inherited or transmitted from one’s family of origin and place of origin on individuals’ housing careers. In many societies, the combination of rising housing prices and the precarious labor market has underscored the pronounced impact of inherited factors on an individual’s housing situation (Lersch and Luijkx, 2015; Mulder et al., 2015). This is particularly relevant in the context of limited social mobility, where, especially for young people, acquiring homeownership solely through individual efforts has become increasingly challenging (Coulter, 2020; Ronald and Lennartz, 2019). Therefore, overlooking ascribed factors may lead to a misunderstanding of the roots of housing inequality.
China has experienced radical housing reforms involving the privatization of public housing stocks and the introduction of market mechanisms in housing provision, leading to a fluctuating upward trend in housing prices (Cui et al., 2024; He et al., 2017). In this context, this study argues that ascribed factors such as the family of origin and place of origin play a crucial role in shaping individuals’ housing careers. However, the existing literature lacks a temporal perspective in two aspects. First, previous studies on housing in China have primarily focused on “discrete events” in housing careers, such as residential moves or transitions into homeownership (Li, 2017; Li and Mao, 2017; Liu et al., 2021; Wei et al., 2020). The so-called housing outcomes are just cross-sectional housing states, overlooking the dynamic nature of housing careers in the context of housing reforms. Second, the influence of both ascribed and achieved factors is also changing. In earlier times when intergenerational transmission was limited, achieved factors were determinant (Cui et al., 2021). While, in recent years, progression along the housing ladder has been regarded as a race, with geographical origin and family background determining the starting line (Cui et al., 2020).
Based on a retrospective survey conducted in Shanghai from 2018 to 2019, this study aims to address the following questions: How do individual housing states change over time? How do both ascribed and achieved factors affect individuals’ housing careers? Given the radical housing reforms in China, do the effects of ascribed and achieved factors on individuals’ housing careers vary across cohorts? By integrating discrete events and emphasizing the continuity of housing careers, this study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of housing inequalities from a temporal perspective. Furthermore, this study broadens the analytical framework on residents’ by incorporating ascribed factors such as family of origin and place of origin. It also offers insights into the changing roles of ascribed and achieved factors concerning housing careers through the lens of cohort differences.
Literature review
A housing career typically refers to the evolving set of housing tenures, and locations/prices that individuals/households proceed through their life courses. The concept was proposed by Kendig (1984), who emphasized that it provides a useful way of integrating studies on residential mobility and the spatial filtering process of the housing market. It refers to the sequence of housing states experienced by individuals over their life course, describing changes in “housing attributes” through residential moves (Davies and Pickles, 1991; Murdie, 2002; Pickles and Davies, 1991). Among housing attributes, housing tenure, and location/price are particularly emphasized and serve as the primary dimensions for identifying and evaluating individuals’ housing careers (Clark et al., 2003). The transition into homeownership is often viewed as the desired goal that individuals strive for in their housing careers (Dewilde, 2008; Firang, 2019). Changes in housing location/price, which are commonly used indicators of the quality of dwellings (Clark et al., 2003), offer a crucial dimension for understanding housing differentiation and social inequalities.
Starting with the work of Kendig (1984), numerous studies have consistently shown that resources obtained through individual efforts, such as educational level and occupation, play a vital role in the realization of upward housing careers (Bolt and Van Kempen, 2002; Kang, 2023; van Kempen and Özüekren, 1998). However, the extent to which these individual factors influence one’s housing career varies depending on the contextual differences in housing market circumstances. Higher levels of education significantly accelerate first-time homeownership transitions and improve housing career performance in countries where there is a strong cultural value attached to property ownership and ideological promotion of owner-occupation (Vogiazides and Chihaya, 2020). In contrast, education has no significant effects in Germany, which is considered to provide a more equitable, tenure-neutral, and sustainable housing system (Bayrakdar et al., 2019). In the context of substantial housing price inflation observed over the last decade, such as in China, higher educational qualification delays the start of one’s housing career and has no significant impact on making a rent-to-owner career (Cui et al., 2016; Cui, 2020). Furthermore, differences in housing careers may also arise from cultural differences. In Germany’s “rental” and Berlin’s “super rental” society, young adults tend to leave their parental homes at a relatively young age, followed by an extended period of living in rented housing with minimal homeownership-related support from their families (Lennartz and Helbrecht, 2018). Conversely, in homeownership societies, homeownership-related transfers are considered “ideal gifts” or “entitled support”, with families playing an increasingly significant role in shaping the housing options of the younger generation (Cigdem and Whelan, 2017; Cui et al., 2020). Especially in China, where there is a long-standing tradition of parents helping their children to secure a home, an increasing number of Chinese young people are entering homeownership at earlier ages despite skyrocketing housing prices over the last decade (Mu et al., 2022).
The influence of ascribed factors assigned at birth, often represented by an individual’s family of origin and place of origin, on the variegated sequences of individuals’ housing states has received limited attention. Existing findings on the relationship between ascribed factors and “discrete events” in housing careers may enhance our understanding of the overall impact of ascribed factors on housing careers. Although analyses across different countries yield mixed results regarding the effect of family of origin, there is a growing consensus that parental homeownership and economic status are increasingly influential in determining individuals’ transitions into homeownership, particularly in contexts where house prices are higher and renting is not a feasible alternative (Mulder et al., 2015, 2018; Ronald and Lennartz, 2019). For instance, Lersch and Luijkx (2015) found a positive and significant effect of parental homeownership on children’s transition into homeownership in most European countries. In China, Mu et al. (2022) revealed that individuals with higher economic status parents are more likely to transition to homeownership at a younger age.
Previous research has explored how individuals’ place of origin influences their housing outcomes, revealing significant variations linked to the diverse housing cultures, systems, and levels of socio-economic development across different countries and regions (Zorlu et al., 2014). For instance, Finnish and Iranian migrants are more likely to transition into homeownership (Abramsson et al., 2002), whereas German migrants are less likely to own a dwelling in the same destination due to the widespread acceptance of lifelong renting in Germany (Manting et al., 2024). Furthermore, migrants from industrialized countries tend to receive parental support (Lennartz and Helbrecht, 2018), thereby increasing their likelihood of homeownership compared to counterparts from less developed countries (Borjas, 2002; Painter et al., 2003). In China, extensive research has documented the influence of the hukou (household registration) system on housing behaviors, highlighting disadvantages faced by migrants in terms of tenure and location compared to locals (Cao et al., 2020; Mu et al., 2023, 2024; Niu and Zhao, 2018; Wu and Zhang, 2018). Building upon existing studies on “discrete events” in housing careers, we argue that beyond achieved factors, ascribed factors such as family of origin and place of origin may also significantly shape individuals’ housing careers.
The restructuring of China’s housing provision system and rapid urbanization have significantly impacted the constraints and opportunities individuals face in their housing choices, giving rise to varied housing trajectories. However, previous studies on housing in China have primarily focused on “discrete events” in housing careers, such as residential moves or transitions into homeownership (Cui et al., 2016; Li and Mao, 2017; Wei et al., 2020). The patterns of how individuals’ housing states change over time and the factors contributing to their housing careers are relatively under-researched in the Chinese context. Furthermore, the transformation of the housing system and the accompanying changes in the housing market over the past four decades may generate the changing effects of ascribed and achieved factors. Since 1978, China’s housing reforms have involved the privatization of public housing stocks and the introduction of market mechanisms in housing provision (He et al., 2017). Individuals employed in the public sector benefited substantially from housing privatization, gaining greater opportunities to acquire homes (Logan et al., 2010). For those born in the 1960s and early 1970s, achieved factors may play a more significant role in shaping their housing careers. Since 2001, the establishment of a private housing market has increased the economic significance of homeownership. Younger cohorts, compared to older ones, face severe housing affordability issues (Mu et al., 2022), strengthening the importance of intergenerational support. Consequently, ascribed factors may exert a more decisive influence on the housing career of younger cohorts than on those of older cohorts.
In sum, previous studies on housing careers have mainly been conducted in Western contexts, with limited attention to the Chinese context, except for Cui’s study (2020). Furthermore, existing studies primarily focus on the influence of achieved factors on individuals’ housing careers. Although considerable research has explored the impact of ascribed factors on “discrete events” in housing careers, such as transitions into homeownership, there has been relatively less focus on how these factors influence individuals’ housing careers. Additionally, given the accompanying changes in the housing market over the past four decades, it remains unclear whether the effects of ascribed and achieved factors on individuals’ housing careers vary across cohorts. To bridge these research gaps, this study aims to illustrate how individuals’ housing states change over time within the context of China and to examine whether the underlying forces shaping individuals’ housing careers differ across cohorts by integrating both ascribed and achieved factors.
Research design
Conceptual framework
Based on the literature review, we proposed a conceptual framework (Fig. 1) explaining the influence of both ascribed and achieved factors on individuals’ housing careers, as well as the changing effects of these factors across cohorts. Achieved factors refer to individual accomplishments acquired through competition and individual efforts, such as education attainment and occupation (Berger et al., 1992; Blau and Duncan, 1967). Many studies have consistently shown that individuals with lower educational attainment and without formal access rights to certain positions in labor and the housing market are less likely to achieve upward housing careers (Abramsson et al., 2002; Firang, 2019). In China, employer type and the Chinese Communist PartyFootnote 1 (CCP) membership have also been regarded as important factors affecting individuals’ housing behavior (Cui, 2020). Thus, we postulate that individuals with higher education levels, employment in the public sector, and membership in the CCP are more likely to achieve upward housing careers in China (Hypothesis 1).
Fig. 1
The conceptual framework.
Ascribed factors refer to a person’s social status assigned based on innate characteristics and social circumstances into which they are born (Chand, 1980; Liu et al., 2021), usually determined by the family of origin and place of origin. Parental homeownership and economic resources, which serve as indicators of parental wealth and the potential for intergenerational transfer of wealth (Mulder et al., 2015; Ronald and Lennartz, 2019), are assumed to positively impact individuals’ housing careers. In addition, the effect of parental employer type and sibship configuration on adult children’s homeownership has been verified in China (Cui et al., 2020; Mu et al., 2022). In this study, we propose that individuals whose parents have a higher economic status, are employed in the public sector, and own a dwelling are more likely to transition into homeownership earlier and achieve upward housing careers (Hypothesis 2).
Hukou status can be both an achieved factor and an ascribed factor. The initial hukou status, assigned at birth and inherited from parents, indicates people’s places of origin and significantly influences their housing careers. The underlying mechanisms pertaining to the hukou system on individuals’ housing behavior are well documented (Niu and Zhao, 2018; Song et al., 2008). Compared with locals, migrants face disadvantages in terms of house tenure and location (Wu and Zhang, 2018). It is important to note that hukou status is not fixed, and individuals can transfer their hukou through their own efforts, making current hukou an achieved factor. Those who obtain new citizenship by changing their initial hukou status perform well at establishing a rent-to-own housing career compared to other migrants (Cui, 2020). In this study, we differentiate four groups based on both initial and current hukou statuses: locals, permanent migrants, temporary urban migrants, and temporary rural migrants. We hypothesize that locals are at an advantage in ascending the housing ladder during the course, followed by permanent migrants and temporary migrants (Hypothesis 3).
In China, the changes in the housing system and market over the past four decades may alter the effects of ascribed and achieved factors on individuals’ housing careers. Inspired by the market transition theory (Nee, 1989) which posits that market factors are gaining importance while institutional factors are fading, we argue that in the context of housing reform, achieved factors, such as education level, are increasingly influential in shaping individuals’ housing careers across cohorts owing to the enhancement of social mobility induced by the market-oriented reforms. Whereas, given the rapid rise in housing prices and worsening housing affordability over the past two decades, ascribed factors may exert a more decisive influence on the housing career of younger cohorts compared to older cohorts (Hypothesis 4).
Data
The data used for empirical analysis were drawn from a survey conducted between 2018 and 2019 in Shanghai. This city was chosen as the study area for three reasons. First, Chinese cities have undergone significant transformations in their economic structure and housing market, resulting in divergent housing trajectories of residents. Shanghai, akin to other Chinese cities, provides a dynamic context for investigating housing careers and understanding the housing inequality stemming from housing reforms. Second, as a typical first-tier city, Shanghai has attracted a large and diverse population, allowing for the exploration of heterogeneity in housing careers among different groups. Third, over the past decade, Shanghai has been characterized by high housing prices and relatively stringent housing policies. Compared to small cities, residents in Shanghai face more pronounced housing challenges, especially in achieving upward housing careers. This renders Shanghai a valuable case study for interrogating individuals’ housing careers.
The survey was conducted using a multi-stage and stratified probability proportional to size sampling method. We first decided the number of sub-districts to be chosen from 13 districtsFootnote 2 in Shanghai based on the total number of sub-districts within each district. Two to four sub-districts were randomly chosen as the primary sampling units. Next, for each selected sub-district, one neighborhood (Xiaoqu) was randomly chosen. During the sampling process, neighborhood types, housing prices, and the year the housing was built were considered to ensure the diversity of samples. Last, we identified approximately 25–40 households from each selected neighborhood based on the total number of households. The household head (or the spouse) who was aged between 18 and 60 and had lived in the surveyed neighborhood for more than six months was randomly selected for door-to-door surveys based on building and house numbers. Ultimately, a sample of 1127 households was collected, of which 1050 were used in the analysis after eliminating those with invalid or incomplete information.
The survey was conducted by a group of professional investigators and a group of students who were trained to recruit respondents and administer the survey. In the course of the interview, the interviewers read the questions from the questionnaire, the respondents answered orally, and then the interviewers recorded the answers. A retrospective survey on life histories was designed and used to obtain information on their long-term housing trajectories and socio-demographic characteristics. We also collected information on their family of origin, such as self-reported parental economic status, employer type, and homeownership (when the respondents were 14-years-old). The average homeownership rate among the total sampled respondents was 67.47%, which is similar to the rate reported by the Annual Report on Social Development of Shanghai (2019).
Table 1 displays the profile of the respondents. More than half of the respondents have only one residency experience and have not changed their housing state. The proportion of individuals with one residential move is also remarkable, reaching 35.08%. In contrast, the proportion of individuals who have experienced at least three moves is the lowest. The respondents are divided into two groups based on their birth cohorts, with the older cohorts consisting of those born in the 1960s and 1970s, while the younger cohorts consisted of those born in the 1980s and 1990s. The sample sizes of the two groups are roughly the same. The largest proportion of the respondents are locals, followed by temporary urban migrants, and temporary rural migrants. The rate of permanent migrants whose hukou have been transferred to Shanghai is the lowest. The respondents mainly comprised individuals who were married (78.89%). The samples have remarkably low proportions of public sector employers (36.37%) and people with a CCP membership (12.49%). Regarding parental background, the majority of respondents’ parents work in the public sector (64.92%), and the proportion of parents with high economic levels and homeownership is 12.39% and 72.65%, respectively. For the sibship configuration, the ratio of males in one-child families, males in multi-child families, females in one-child families, and females in multi-child families is generally the same. The average length of housing careers of individuals in Shanghai is 21.7 years.
Methods
Sequence analysis includes a set of statistical techniques for the description of chronological sequences and has been widely applied to study the life-course trajectories of individuals after Abbott (1995) introduced it into the social sciences (Aisenbrey and Fasang, 2010; Brydsten and Baranowska-Rataj, 2022; Kraus, 2019). The method is also well suited for describing and analyzing changes in housing states during one’s life course (Borg et al., 2022; Mikolai and Kulu, 2019). In sequence analysis, each individual’s life course is represented by a sequence of states. In this study, housing sequences were created using package ‘TraMineR’ in Rstudio, which offers several functions for describing and rendering the ordering of housing status over each respondent’s person–years, enabling the differentiation of individuals based on when, in which order, and for how long they lived in each housing state.
To conduct the sequence analysis, we first define housing status at each age between ages 18 and 60. Housing tenure, price, and location are used to define individuals’ housing states, which are commonly seen in previous studies (Clark et al., 2003; Cui, 2020). To reflect the housing differentiation among renters, we divided renters into two types based on housing location, namely renting a dwelling within the middle ring in Shanghai (RC) and renting a dwelling outside the middle ring in Shanghai (RS)Footnote 3. To capture housing differentiation among homeowners, we used housing prices to categorize ownership into four types: low-priced ownership (O1), low-to-average-priced ownership (O2), average-to-high-priced ownership (O3), and high-priced ownership (O4)Footnote 4. For each respondent, one of these six possible states is assigned to each year of their housing career.
The dependent variable is the generalized pattern of housing career. Inspired by previous scholars who have measured housing careers based on changes in housing tenure, prices, or location (Clark et al., 2003; Cui, 2020), we categorize housing career patterns into six categories: rental career (R), low-priced owner-occupied career (o), high-priced owner-occupied career (O), rent-to-own career (R → O), ascending owner-occupied career (o → O), descending career (O → R and O → o). As proposed in the conceptual framework, the independent variables consisted of the cohort, hukou status, achieved factors (education level, employer type, and CCP), and ascribed factors (parental economic statusFootnote 5, parental homeownership, parental employer type, and sibship configuration). In addition, marriage and length of housing career in Shanghai since age 18 have been proven to be important factors influencing housing careers in existing studies (Cui, 2020; Hassink and Zweerink, 2021). these factors have been controlled for in our models.
In the following analysis, we used sequence analysis to examine how the housing states of individuals have evolved while living in Shanghai. Building upon existing studies (Bolt and Van Kempen (2002); Cui, 2020; Kang, 2023; Ronald and Lennartz, 2019), we have identified three key variables from a broader set: education level, parental homeownership, and hukou status. These variables were chosen for sequence analysis to elucidate the relationship between ascribed factors, achieved factors, and housing careers. Additionally, a multinomial logistic regression model was employed in Model 1 to investigate the impact of both achieved and ascribed factors on the respondents’ housing careers. To further explore whether the influence of achieved and ascribed factors on housing careers varies across cohorts, we incorporated three interaction terms—cohort and hukou, cohort and education level, and cohort and parental homeownership—into Models 2, 3, and 4.
