The campaign for Florida State Senate District 3 is targeting residents of Tallahassee and the 13 surrounding counties with a dramatic retelling of the legendary careers of two prominent Florida State University alumni.
Incumbent state Republican Sen. Cory Simon and Democratic challenger Darryl Parks are talking about a district the size of Massachusetts that includes two universities and the state capital and is surrounded by farming, logging and fishing communities. , has hardly participated in election campaigns or made any public comments.
But they and their party’s Senate Campaign Committee are using Maryland’s Mentzer Media and Virginia’s Screen Strategies to influence voters’ opinions of them and change voters’ views of their opponents. – Spent over $7 million on media.
Republicans currently hold a 28-12 advantage in the 40-member state Senate. This election is not expected to change control of Congress. As such, the SD 3 race has become more of a sporting event for the political class, a competition among peers, than a debate over policy or who will set the 2025 legislative agenda.
Simon and Parks are scheduled to make a joint appearance where they may face unscripted questions at a Tuesday luncheon hosted by the Capital Tiger Bay Club, which is known for its keen interest in politics. It’s just one candidate forum.
But this campaign may provide insight into the dynamics that will be at play in the Senate over the next two years.
Pivotal races attract big campaign contributions
Two years ago, Republicans spent an estimated $8 million supporting Mr. Simon in an effort to flip a district held by Democrats for more than 100 years.
Currently, a committee controlled by incoming Republican Senate President Ben Albritton of Wauchula and Senate Democratic Leader-designate Jason Pizzo of South Florida is providing most of the funding for the multimedia push. are.
Simon was a star football player on the Florida State Seminoles’ 2000 National Championship team, played in the 2004 Pro Bowl, and played in Super Bowl XXXIX with the Philadelphia Eagles, losing to the New England Patriots.
Parks, a civil rights attorney, was an undergraduate at Florida A&M University and earned her law degree from FSU. He is perhaps best known for representing the family of 14-year-old Martin Lee Anderson, who died in custody and caused the Florida Legislature to shut down all Department of Juvenile Justice boot camps.
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In August, every time a voter turns on the TV, picks up the mail, drives by a billboard, or looks at their cell phone, voters will be told their own life stories and their opponents’ stories. Palindromes that talk about character flaws are now available for viewing.
Mentzer and Screen Strategies cast clients as protagonists in competing stories about the battle between good and evil. It is up to the storyteller to decide who is the hero and who is the villain.
For example, Mentzer chronicles the exploits of Corey Simon, who thinks no obstacles are difficult to overcome, but now finds himself competing with a lying and divisive Darryl Parks. I did.
Screen Strategies is about Darryl Parks, who works hard to do what’s right – fight for the people, unlike Corey Simon, an out-of-control politician who attacks freedom and raises insurance premiums.
At the same time, these game plans may have little impact on the outcome of the race, scholars say. And politicians, media and election consultants who have worked with SD 3 said the messages they promote may not appeal to or sway voters in their districts.
Do negative ads move voters?
Research shows that negative advertising rarely changes voters’ opinions. Notable exceptions include President Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 Daisy ad and Mentzer’s 2004 Swift Boat campaign, said Kenneth Miller, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
“It’s never easy to manipulate the public because they don’t really pay attention to advertising,” Miller said. Mr. Mentzer, who specializes in how political ads influence voters, says there’s a good chance that Mr. Mentzer and Screen Strategies will be shouting to an empty room in the state Senate race.
“Two-thirds to 75% of American voters cannot know who the Speaker of the House is. Therefore, the chance that they know who their state representative is is virtually zero. ” Miller said.
The two campaigns also flooded the area with “excessive advertising” such as “Simon sold out consumers on donations” and “Parks profit from hate”. In fact, former Leon County Commissioner Gary Yordon suspects no one is listening to them anymore.
Yodon has managed or consulted on more than 200 campaigns during his 40-year career. He said those who will be traveling for the race “have already moved, packed their things and are living in their new homes.”
“It’s not like someone is going to wake up tomorrow morning and say, ‘I’ve seen 73 commercials and I feel like I’m leaning over…’ – that’s not going to happen. Either you believe in the crazy stuff, or you don’t.” ,” Yordon said.
He designed, produced and managed former U.S. Sen. Bill Montford’s television campaign in 2010, when the Democrat from Tallahassee was first elected to the district’s U.S. Senate. He ended up serving 10 years. Yordon wonders if SD 3’s two-pronged campaign strategy reflects or resonates with district voters.
Montford and Yordon say the district is home to the last group of “yellow dog Democrats” in the Panhandle. Montford said the urban and rural electorate group is known for being independent, roughly in the middle, and supporting Democrats and Republicans.
“They’re less interested in a candidate’s political party, but much more interested in a candidate’s honesty and core beliefs,” said Montford, a former Leon County commissioner and superintendent.
Most of the voters in the district live in Gadsden, Leon County.
More than half of the district’s voters live in Gadsden and Leon counties, which traditionally support Democratic candidates by a nearly two-thirds margin. The surrounding 11 counties have trended Republican by similar margins in recent years.
Four years ago, President Joe Biden led the district by 3 points. But Mr. Simon won 53% of the precinct vote, beating his previous Republican challengers by 2.6 percentage points in Leon and Gadsden counties, defeating veteran lawmaker Loran Ousley.
Democrats believe Simon took office at the behest of Gov. Ron DeSantis. Mr. DeSantis won re-election in the 2022 election by a 19-point margin and supported Mr. Simon in the race. The governor previously appointed him CEO of Volunteer Florida, which he describes as “the state’s leading agency for volunteerism and national service.”
A poll conducted in August by Impact Research, commissioned by the Parks campaign, found the race to be close, with both candidates receiving 45% support. Charles Zelden, a history and political science professor at Nova Southeastern University, said given those numbers, a candidate’s fate will depend on how many voters their party can attract.
Democrats support Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and support constitutional amendments to expand access to abortion and legalize marijuana.
The Republican ticket is led by former President Donald Trump, with Sen. Rick Scott seeking re-election and becoming the next Senate Republican leader. Republicans also oppose amendments on marijuana and abortion.
Soelden said national elections and amendments are “bright, shiny objects” that distract voters from local “table” issues like insurance rates, job creation and child care costs.
“We don’t know what the turnout will be,” Zölden said. “All we know is that it’s likely to be massive. And whether abortion carries as much weight as people want and passes. “I think Democrats should do well and make up that 2-3 percentage points in Leon and Gadsden counties.”
With these high-profile races and two controversial ballot questions, Yordon said Parks vs. Simon could be the election voters will miss this November.
“I think SD 3 is more than an afterthought, but not much more,” he said.
But after the article was published online, Yordon made his thoughts clear: “I definitely don’t think the SD 3 race will be put on the backburner. I think it’s a very high profile one,” he said. spoke.
(This article has been updated to include new information and because an earlier version contained inaccuracies. Yordon designed and produced Montford’s TV campaign in 2010 Previous versions said otherwise.)
James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com and at: @Tallahassee.
