Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers is available on Amazon Prime Video at 8:20 PM ET/5:20 PM PT.
This season, with the Falcons back in the spotlight, the NFL has shown no mercy in putting Kirk Cousins in prime time — despite his previously ugly career record in prime time. This time, Atlanta, who is 2-2, will face their rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3-1 and are coming off a 33-16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s take a look at the biggest fantasy football stories from this TNF matchup.
What happened to Bejan Robinson?
Now, that question assumes that Bijan Robinson was a complete fantasy waste and couldn’t even come close to being in the top six in preseason ADP. That’s not accurate. Robinson has been on a roll, scoring double-digit fantasy points through the first three weeks of the season. But then again, he had a top-six ADP. He has never had more than 15 fantasy points in a season. What gives?
Sure, he’s had some tough games against teams that rank above average against the run (vs. Steelers, @Philadelphia, vs. Kansas City, vs. New Orleans). The scary thing is that Robinson gave up a ton of work last week to back up Tyler Allgaier, which is the last thing fantasy football managers want to see.
Robinson has also been dealing with a hamstring injury, so that could be holding him back. Of course, the Falcons could continue to split the workload between Robinson and Allgayer in this game to protect Robinson to some degree. That being said, the Falcons will obviously rely on the run against the Buccaneers’ run funnel defense, which will open up a play-action game. Speaking of which…
Is this the Drake London blowout we’ve been waiting for?
Drake London was everyone’s favorite breakout candidate this season. All the boxes were checked: 1) He got a new, better quarterback, 2) He got a new, innovative and exciting offense, and 3) Matt Harmon’s. In his words, he is “definitely good at the game.” Everything seemed too right, too possible to happen.
So naturally, throughout the four weeks, we wonder if we did it all wrong.
London was a virtual no-show in Week 1 (to be fair, the Falcons’ entire offense was a no-show), but bounced back in Week 2 with a 6-54-1 line. The good times continued in the third week. London scored another touchdown. He didn’t score again in Week 4, but he did secure six more catches for the third straight week. Perhaps more importantly, London had 12 targets in the passing game. He currently has 31 targets in four games for a rate of 7.75 per game. He’s heading in the right direction.
As mentioned earlier, the Falcons will need to rely on the run to set up a play-action passing game. This helps target London outside of play-action in the middle of the field. According to TruMedia, he ran 124 routes in the middle of the field. Fantasy and Rams fans alike will recall that this system used Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in play-action in the middle of the field. And with the Bucks expected to pick up some decent points, Rondon will be expected to move the chains and create explosive plays through the air.
This season, Rondon has had positive results every week in terms of receptions, touchdowns, and targets, and we can expect an increase in big plays in this game.
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Bucky Irving > Rashard White?
By now everyone knows about Rashard White’s problems. He was a great receiving weapon for the Buccaneers, but he was never efficient on the ground. Rookie Bucky Irving, on the other hand, has seen increased usage in each game this season. It culminated in Week 4, when a two-back split carry down the middle led to Irving scoring his first touchdown.
The Rashard White trade likely closed any chances of getting a solid return, but keep an eye on his receiving work in this game. If he can step up as a weapon in the passing game, especially with Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan already ruled out, perhaps that opportunity will open up again and fantasy managers could take less bait and get something in return. will be possible.
Of course, if Irving’s workload increases to the point that it encroaches on White’s passing game duties, that window could close completely.
Pick-and-play: Cade Otton, TE, Buccaneers
Dropped: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
What we know here is a story of two close relationships moving in completely opposite directions.
On the other hand, we have an unprecedented tight end who has amassed 17 targets and 13 catches in the past two games. On the other side, there’s a big-time tight end who was supposed to break out this season, but hit rock bottom in Week 4. He had 3 goals, 0 catches, and 0 fantasy points.
I don’t think the entire football world was wrong about Kyle Pitts as a prospect. He’s a physical freak who had a great rookie season. But I suspect he got lost in some of the more technical aspects of football. Kirk Cousins himself reportedly helped Pitts with the catch point during the preseason. The Falcons’ entire offense has shown signs of improvement each week, balancing out moments of brilliance with others that clearly show a lack of practice between the team’s new quarterback, receiving weapons, and entire offensive system. . So perhaps there’s hope for Pitts (although his coach doesn’t seem to care much about all of this).
Of course, a fantasy manager trying to win every week can’t afford to get his hopes up, especially at the already bad TE position. It might hurt to take Pitts off, but there are better options on the waiver wire this week, like Otton (28% roster).
Otton has shown flashes of talent in the past, but a lack of consistency has held him back throughout his young career. But the 6-foot-5, 25-year-old tight end has received steady attention from Baker Mayfield and the powerful Bucs passing game in recent weeks. As mentioned, the team is also dealing with injuries to receivers, so the Falcons’ strong secondary will have its hands full stopping Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but Otton will be a security blanket and big They could be seen as easy targets. Not to mention, Otto also ranks third on the team in red zone goals (3) this season behind Godwin and Evans.
If his contract with Pitts ends and they let the likes of Tucker Craft, Cole Kmet, and Zach Ertz off the waiver wire, consider Otto at TNF.
