In a country that seems evenly divided on politics and polarized on many cultural issues, a durable majority agrees on one thing. That means I don’t like President Biden’s term in office.
And despite the intrigue that resulted in President Joe Biden being removed from the ballot this election season, his unpopularity remains the mood music of this election.
From border policy to the economy he’s led to the turmoil overseas, there’s not much about the Biden era that voters like at this point. That’s why former President Donald Trump has essentially a 50-50 chance of returning to the White House just four years after voters removed him from office.
Of course, the reason Trump’s chances aren’t more than 50-50 is because Democrats ultimately read the mood and switched their nominee from Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris. Bottom line: In hindsight, it’s clearer now that Biden simply didn’t have the winning moves to survive, perhaps regardless of that unfortunate debate performance. All he had was to capitalize on January 6th and the backlash against abortion. Both issues resonate with a significant portion of the electorate, but they alone were not enough to get him across the finish line.
But even though Biden is no longer on the ballot, voters certainly feel his presence. If there’s one thing they clearly don’t want, it’s a candidate who reminds them of Biden.
Let’s set the scene. In the latest NBC News poll, 54% of respondents said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing. In fact, this is his “highest” disapproval rating of the year, lower than the 56% disapproval he received before he was expelled in April and the whopping 60% disapproval he received earlier this year. There is no doubt that the more inflation became felt nationwide, the more people expressed disapproval of Mr. Biden’s work.
To dig deeper, we tested the term “Bidenomics” in the latest NBC News poll. And voters’ reactions to it further illustrate the challenges Harris faces as Biden’s vice president.
By a 2-to-1 ratio (22% positive, 46% negative), voters view the term “Bidenomics” negatively. That includes about one-fifth of all eligible voters. Since 2016, he has voted straight for either a Republican or a Democrat for the White House.
To give you an idea of where this 21% of voters currently stand politically, our poll found that these voters favored Trump over Harris by 7 points, but Democratic control of Congress was supported by 4 points.
Digging deeper into the category of “floating voters” reveals that “Bidenomics” is even more of a problem for Harris. Among voters who identify as independent, the split is 16% to 49% in favor of the term. Bidenomics does not perform well among suburban women (26% to 37%), white women (22% to 47%), and women over 50 (30% to 45%).
These are all voting groups that Harris will have to successfully work with to win this election.
(By the way, “Bidenomics” is hardly popular among Democrats, with 31% viewing the term positively and 25% viewing it negatively. One in four Democrats. is negative about the word “Bidenomics” is not a yellow light, but it is a political emergency that causes a red light to flash).
That’s why Harris’ comments on “The View” last week could have such a devastating effect on her campaign, with Election Day just weeks away. When asked which decision Biden has made as president that would have gone in a different direction, she said, “I can’t think of one.”
This is a quote that could remain with this campaign in a very unpleasant way for her in the final weeks of this campaign, or, like John Kerry after his infamous comments in 2004 about Iraq war funding. , she could likely remain in this campaign for years if she runs out. In fact, I voted for $87 billion before voting against it. ”
In 2004, Mr. Kerry tried to explain the difference between his two different military spending votes, but the way he worded it was that the George W. Bush campaign was trying to portray Mr. Kerry as indecisive and flippant. This reinforced the image that this is the case. When you lose a very close election, like Kerry did in 2004, there are many points you can make. But in a message exchange, the words struck a chord with him and influenced his entire campaign.
Similarly, this year, Republicans jumped at every chance to turn this campaign into a simple referendum on their party in the White House. There are good reasons for that, as explained above. Biden is personally unpopular, and his record is professionally unpopular. In fact, Biden is currently more personally unpopular than either Harris or Trump. “Nothing comes to mind” is exactly that.
Those who already approve of Biden’s term in office, or who don’t like President Trump, may see Harris’ comments as no big deal. But remember: The voters deciding this election aren’t all that enthusiastic about President Trump’s actions. If they were, they still wouldn’t be floating voters.
The current vice president’s track record in the modern political era (which I define as post-World War II) is modest. Of the four candidates seeking to succeed a sitting president, only George H.W. Bush won in 1988. Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Al Gore in 2000 all lost close elections. If Harris falls short, it will likely look like Gore, Humphrey or Nixon. This is also a close race that will draw attention to the current vice president.
Expect Harris to find more ways to differentiate herself from Biden between now and Election Day. But time is ticking, and her comments last week only mean she has more work to do and less time to do it.
On the other hand, there is one aspect of Biden’s unpopularity that should concern Trump. It’s age. He is now the oldest candidate, making his mental and physical stamina even more noteworthy. If it’s Biden’s “hangover” that ends up hurting Trump more than Biden, that means Team Harris has effectively weaponized his age. Let’s see how this goes.
Popularity Vote Watch
Nate Cohn of the New York Times and others have said that the possibility of a sharp divide between the popular vote and the Electoral College, which was a hot topic in the past two presidential elections, may disappear in this election. There are several analyzes that make the case. cycle.
In our latest NBC News poll, pollsters divided the direct voting test into Trump/Republican core states, Harris/Democratic core states, and 12 more close states in between. We then compared the results of this cycle to 2020 and 2016.
What’s interesting is how much smaller the Democratic lead in “blue” states will be in 2024 compared to 2020 and 2016. In 2016, Trump lost core Democratic states by 22 points, and in 2020 he lost them by 24 points. The latest poll showed Trump losing the Democratic core state by just 13 points.
Meanwhile, while Trump’s support has increased slightly in blue states, it has stagnated in red states and battleground states. In 2016, Trump won core Republican states by 18 points, but in 2020 his margin in red states was 16 points. This latest poll also showed it at 16 points. And the difference between the battleground states remained at 1 point all three times, with little variation between the two parties.
What exactly does this mean? If poll trends hold and Trump moves up the rankings without winning any blue states, the winner of the Electoral College (whoever that is) could carry the popular vote. It increases.
No one knows how President Trump’s next 10-day tour of blue state arenas will affect support in blue states, but one thing is certain: if he wins the presidency while also winning the popular vote. , that it would be a different kind of mission for the president. From what he claims to have obtained in 2016.
