Kickoff between Georgia Tech and North Carolina State approaches, and the Yellow Jackets started the week as 5-point favorites, but as kickoff approaches, FanDuel Sportsbook says the Yellow Jackets are only 3.5-point favorites to win. The total score is 59.5 points.
Sportsbooks favor Georgia Tech, but Bill Connelly’s SP+ gives North Carolina Tech a slight edge. SP+ gives North Carolina a 54% chance of winning and predicts a final score of 30-29 in favor of the Tar Heels.
What is SP+? In a nutshell, this is a measure of efficiency in college football adjusted by tempo and opponent. I created this system in 2008 at Football Outsiders. As I’ve gained more experience with both college football and its statistics, I’ve made quite a few adjustments to my system.
SP+ is certainly meant to be predictive and forward-looking. This is not a resume ranking that recognizes big wins or particularly brave schedules. There is no good prediction system. This is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you get lucky or have an unimpressive win, your rating may drop. If you are strong and unlucky enough to lose, it will go up.
If Georgia Tech wants to win Saturday, it will have to slow down North Carolina’s onslaught led by Omarion Hampton, the nation’s No. 3 rusher. North Carolina’s passing attack hasn’t been strong this season, and the offense has been running through Hampton. Hampton has the ability to win games on his own and stopping him will be one of the keys to Saturday’s game.
Hampton is a future NFL starter at running back and has gained 764 yards in six games this season. He averages nearly six yards per carry and has only had one game this year where he totaled less than 100 yards. Head coach Brent Key emphasized yesterday that Hampton is a great player in this offense, but he also believes there’s more to this North Carolina offense than just Hampton.
“Yeah, I know they always hear about running backs and it makes sense. He’s a good, good, good football player, a really good player. But when you look at their offense; They’re pretty good.” I think there’s a good balance. I think they’re somewhere between 55-45% as far as passing. So it’s not like they’re running side by side 65-70% of the time. I mean, they’re going to load it into the box. RPO and then they take a shot down the field. You know, their last game, they were trying to take a few shots vertically down the field. You must be able to reliably read the keys and read the keys in tempo. It is especially important at the second and third levels. after that. We have to be able to control the front line, you know, we have to be able to control the game up front. Apparently, D-Lines is the only position he played that didn’t have a conflict run pass. You have to be sharp with your keys and reads.”
Hampton is having a great season at North Carolina State and has a big task to improve on his rushing defense. Let’s see if the Yellow Jackets can field the best running back in the country.
