summary
What the CDC knows
Every winter, U.S. hospital systems brace for an increase in illnesses, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations from influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and other seasonal respiratory viruses. As of mid-October, respiratory disease activity across the United States remained low. Most regions saw declines in positive COVID-19 test rates, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations. Influenza and RSV activity remained low nationwide. Staying up to date with recommended vaccinations can help prevent serious illness and hospitalization.
What does the CDC do?
In August, CDC released its first Respiratory Disease Season Outlook, which combines expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modeling to provide information to support public health preparedness for upcoming respiratory virus seasons. provided to the decision maker. This outlook has been updated with more information about what will happen this season, including modeling results showing how vaccinations can help prevent hospitalizations.
Role of vaccination
To understand the potential impact of vaccination, we used scenario modeling to compare scenarios with high and low vaccination coverage. This scenario model assumes that the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine will be as effective as last year’s vaccine. The results show that vaccination can prevent many hospitalizations this season. For scenarios with low vaccination coverage, we used data from the first week of collection from the National Immunization Survey. As of September 7, 24% of adults 18 and older said they would “definitely” get vaccinated this year. If 24% of adults over 18 were vaccinated against COVID-19 this year, up to 98,000 hospitalizations could be prevented. If vaccination rates doubled from last season, up to 227,000 hospitalizations could be prevented. Vaccination rates in the high vaccination scenario were twice the 2023-2024 level for each age group throughout the season.
Outlook for the 2024-2025 respiratory virus season
Consistent with its original projections, CDC continues to predict that the fall/winter 2024-2025 virus season will have a combined peak number of hospitalizations for influenza, COVID-19, and RSV that will be similar to or lower than last season. I predict that. The initial outlook and current update are based on expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modeling for influenza, COVID-19, and RSV.
To plan for the upcoming season, the CDC uses hospitalization data (Scenario A) and emergency department visit data (Scenario B) to create two possible scenarios regarding COVID-19 and determine when the season will begin. We have demonstrated different possibilities of how it could unfold.
In Scenario A, if COVID-19 activity from the summer does not peak before the start of the respiratory phase, hospitalizations could peak in late December. In scenario B, if the summer wave of COVID-19 peaks before the respiratory phase begins, a smaller second wave could occur in mid-January. Under both scenarios, hospitalizations are projected to be lower than last season, which would keep overall hospitalizations for influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus low this year.
The summer wave of infections peaked in the week ending August 10, according to data from the COVID-19 Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET). As a result, herd immunity may be lower than if the summer wave of infections continued. Was it increasing or peaking at a higher rate? Therefore, the next season is expected to be more similar to scenario A, with the winter peak being higher than the previous summer/autumn peak. This is similar to the trend of COVID-19 infections over the past four years.
At present, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus is decreasing, and the activity of influenza and RSV is also low, so the overall activity of respiratory viruses remains low nationwide. Vaccination is expected to play an important role in reducing hospitalizations due to influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and COVID-19.
Two possible scenarios during peak COVID-19 hospitalizations, depending on the timing of summer COVID-19 activity and input data sources.
Protect yourself and encourage your loved ones to get vaccinated
This season, vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself from the serious consequences of viral respiratory illnesses. Vaccinations are important for everyone, but they are especially important for people who are at high risk of developing serious complications.
The CDC recommends influenza and COVID-19 vaccinations for everyone 6 months and older. The CDC recommends RSV vaccination for the following people:
Some infants Pregnant people Older adults, including those aged 60 to 74 All people aged 75 and older
For additional information on eligibility and access, see Get Vaccinations for the Fall/Winter 2024-2025 Virus Season.
