The Mets have a chance to clinch a wild-card spot this week when they face the Braves in a three-game series in Atlanta.
With the postseason set to begin next week, here are some playoff scenarios for the final week of the regular season…
For the Mets to clinch a wild card spot…
The Mets are 2.0 games behind the Braves, and the math is pretty simple when it comes to their chances of clinching a playoff spot with their series in Atlanta from Tuesday through Thursday.
The Mets need to win at least two of three games against the Braves to qualify.
The Mets need to win at least four games and lose two of their remaining six games to qualify.
If the Mets win even one of the three games against the Braves, they will lose the season series to Atlanta while still being 1.0 game behind the Braves. In that reality, the Mets still control their own destiny, but the situation becomes more uncertain.
The Mets can control their own destiny…
In the above scenario, even if the Mets win just one game in Atlanta, they could still sweep the Brewers in a three-game series this weekend in Milwaukee and clinch a wild-card spot.
The Mets enter Friday’s game with a 1.0 game lead over Atlanta, so the Braves wouldn’t be able to catch the Mets if they sweep Milwaukee.
The Mets would still be able to control their own destiny in a scenario where they win one game against the Braves, fail to sweep the Brewers, and the Braves lose at least one game to the Royals in the season-final series.
For example, if the Mets beat Atlanta by 1.0 game on the final weekend and the Braves lost one game to Kansas City, the Mets would need to win two of three games against the Brewers to clinch the position. Every time the Braves lose to the Royals, the Mets’ margin of error increases.
New York Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) reacts as he hits a home run while rounding the bases during the bottom of the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field, New York City, New York, USA, September 22, 2024. / Gregory Fisher Images
The Mets need help…
If the Mets are swept by the Braves in Atlanta, they’ll enter Friday’s game 1.0 game behind the Braves with no tiebreaker.
That means New York is no longer in control of its own destiny when it comes to beating Atlanta.
Here’s how the Mets would finish the season above the Braves…
The Braves will beat the Brewers in 3 games, but the Braves will lose at least 2 games to the Royals.
Braves win 2 games against Brewers, while Braves lose 3 games against Royals
The Diamondbacks are also worth noting.
It’s not just a Braves issue, as the Mets are looking to punch their ticket to October.
Entering Tuesday’s games, the Mets were half a game behind the Diamondbacks for the second wild card spot and also held the tiebreaker against them by winning the season series.
As mentioned above, if the Mets win at least two games against the Braves this week, they will be in the mix.
If they don’t achieve that, they could still qualify by finishing ahead of the Braves or finishing tied or ahead of the Diamondbacks.
Arizona finishes the season with five home games against the Giants (Tuesday and Wednesday) and Padres (Friday through Sunday).
