Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.
In today’s edition, our team breaks down Nebraska’s key senator’s decision to block President Trump’s backed effort to change how the state’s electoral votes are allocated, plus we’ll take a closer look at the latest NBC News Poll.
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Nebraska Republicans block Trump-backed effort to change how state’s electoral votes are apportioned
Jonathan Allen, Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Katherine Doyle, Alan Smith, Ben Cammisar
Nebraska Republicans said Monday they continue to oppose changes to how the state’s electoral votes are apportioned, effectively blocking an attempt by President Donald Trump and his allies to change the system in a bid to win additional electoral votes this fall.
Allies of President Trump have been urging the Republican-controlled Legislature to call a special legislative session to change Nebraska’s electoral votes to a winner-take-all system rather than apportioning them by district.
“After careful consideration, it is clear that with 43 days until Election Day, now is not the time to make this change,” state Sen. Mike McDonnell wrote in the letter obtained by NBC News.
The development appears to bring to an end months of deliberations by Nebraska lawmakers over whether they can change the way the state’s electoral votes are allocated in favor of President Trump.
Nebraska apportions its electors by district, and the battleground district around Omaha has twice favored Democrats in recent years, while Democrats, like other states, have won one electoral vote from a heavily Republican state.
But if lawmakers change that to a winner-take-all system, Trump would almost certainly win all of Nebraska’s electoral votes.
And there’s a plausible scenario that it could determine who the next president will be.
For example, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but loses all other battleground states, Trump would win Nebraska under winner-take-all rules, and Harris and Trump would be tied with 269 electoral votes.
Read more →
2020 vs. 2024: Why this election could still be close
Mark Murray
The latest NBC News national poll is good news for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party: Harris is leading Donald Trump by five points among registered voters, her popularity has soared since July and she’s leading Trump in better representing change.
But despite the favorable outcome for Democrats, here is a reminder of just how close the November election could still be. Our polling mirrors in some ways the results of a late October 2020 poll, and reminds us just how close and competitive that election was.
Biden’s favorability rating as of late October 2020: 45% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+3)
Harris now: 48% positive, 45% negative (+3)
Trump’s favorability rating as of late October 2020: Trump: 43% favorable, 52% unfavorable (-9)
Trump now: 40% positive, 53% negative (-13)
National direction as of late October 2020: 31% in the right direction, 60% in the wrong direction
The country’s current direction: 28% in the right direction, 65% in the wrong direction
Congressional approval rating as of late October 2020: Democrats 48%, Republicans 43% (D+5)
Current Congressional Approval Ratings: Democrats 48%, Republicans 46% (D+2)
“These moves for Harris essentially put the race back where it was at the end of the 2020 campaign, when it was very close,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster for the nonpartisan NBC News poll.
And if you need another reminder of just how close the race will be in November, here’s a new New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which show Trump leading in all of those key states, but within the margin of error.
🗞️ Today’s top news
📺 Debate prep: Republican Senator JD Vance of Ohio is preparing for next week’s vice presidential debate with the help of his wife, advisers and Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz, who is playing Governor of Ohio. Read more → 👀 Vance speaks out: Vance also responded to the controversy surrounding North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, telling NBC Philadelphia that allegations that Robinson posted lewd comments on a porn site are “not necessarily true.” Read more → 💲 Shutdown end: Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana has defied President Trump by striking a deal to fund the government for three more months. The House is set to vote on the deal this week. Read more → 🗣️ Transition: President Trump’s advisers and allies are already preparing for the transition to a Trump administration, preparing lists of candidates for various positions. Read more →🛑 Fighting back: As Trump and Vance target Haitian immigrants in recent speeches, some Republicans in areas with large immigrant populations feel compelled to fight back, arguing that immigrants have revitalized their communities. Read more →🏠 Frustrated with housing: As politicians try to address soaring home prices, homebuilders say they face a range of issues from increased demand and rising prices to labor shortages and tougher building regulations. Read more →🐔 Faltering at the debate: The DNC has launched a new campaign calling Trump a “coward” for not committing to the next debate with Harris, and has even put up billboards depicting Trump in a chicken costume. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Department. If you have any comments (what you liked, what you didn’t like, etc.), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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