While the number of enemies Israel is fighting has increased over the past year, including Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the most worrying prospect is the possibility of war with Iran.
The two countries, which do not share a border, have been at loggerheads for years through proxies, subterfuge and sabotage. Each of the extremist organizations that Israel is simultaneously fighting is backed by Iran. It was always intended to be indirect. Despite being regional rivals, each company wanted to avoid what was sure to be a costly and existential confrontation.
Now, with Israel planning a retaliatory attack following Iran’s ballistic missile attack of unprecedented scale and scope on October 1, the possibility of war has increased and the international community and countries in the region are on alert. giving.
This is why war is so concerning.
Israel and Iran have two of the most powerful militaries in the region.
Israel has one of the most technologically advanced militaries in the world and ranks among the world’s top military spenders as a percentage of gross domestic product. Researchers say Israel’s arms industry produces weapons at such high capacity that last year it produced enough to export record quantities despite the war in Gaza. . Israel has also received significant support from the United States, which has supplied more than 29,000 guided bombs, rockets, and various missiles since 2009.
Members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard march in a parade in Tehran last month. Credit: Arash Khammooshi of The New York Times
Iran’s military is the largest in the Middle East, with at least 580,000 active-duty soldiers and about 200,000 reservists, according to an International Institute for Strategic Studies assessment last year. Iran has made developing precision, long-range missiles a priority for decades, and has one of the region’s largest ballistic missile arsenals. The country also has a large inventory of drones with ranges of up to 1,550 miles and the ability to fly low to avoid radar.
If a war breaks out, the United States and the Gulf states could become involved.
An escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, one of America’s closest allies, could draw American troops across the region into the fray. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post that “anyone with knowledge or understanding” of Israel’s plans to attack Iran should be held accountable. President Biden has indicated he is aware of Israel’s plans.
Pentagon officials have debated whether the increased presence of U.S. troops, aimed at averting a broader war, is fueling regional conflict by emboldening Israel. In late September, the Pentagon announced it would send thousands more U.S. troops to the region, increasing the 40,000-strong presence there. This month, the United States sent Israel a state-of-the-art missile defense system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and about 100 American troops to help operate it.
Last year, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Force was deployed to Guam during a multinational joint military exercise. Credit…Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Iran’s foreign minister has issued vague threats to countries where US troops are stationed, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Iran’s mission to the United Nations warned in a statement this month that “any country that provides aid to the aggressor should equally be considered an accomplice and a legitimate target.”
The economic fallout can be devastating.
Israel has notified the United States that it will not attack Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in the expected attack. Still, this guarantee does not prevent Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities in a future escalation phase, the implications of which could be highly destabilizing for the global economy.
Although highly unlikely, if Israel attacks Iranian oil facilities, Iran or its proxies could target refineries in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Another distant scenario that worries analysts is that Iran threatens to allow tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Shipped worldwide from the Persian Gulf.
A shock to global oil supplies could lead to higher gas prices, lower employment and investment, and an economic downturn. The impact will be particularly damaging to poor countries that rely on oil imports.
On Wednesday, a mural in Tehran’s Palestine Square depicts pictures of Gaza hostages. The mural says no one will be released after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip. Credit…Arash Khammooshi of The New York Times
There is a lot of room for miscalculation.
For the past few years, the prevailing belief among Middle East watchers has been that both Iran and Israel want to avoid direct conflict.
That assumption was shattered in April when Iran launched an attack with more than 300 drones and missiles in retaliation for Israel’s killing of seven Iranian officials in Syria. U.S. officials said this surprised Israel, which had miscalculated the severity of Iran’s response. Due to Israel’s cautious approach at the time, it appeared that retaliation would end well short of war.
Following a barrage of fire earlier this month that targeted military as well as civilian areas, Israel may be more willing to risk war with Iran. The long-standing deterrence framework appears to have collapsed, and each country is at risk of misjudging the other’s response and overreaching at junctures.
