Georgia Tech had a disappointing game against Louisville on Saturday, suffering its second loss of the season. Mistakes, turnovers and poor coaching decisions led to a loss to the Cardinals that dropped the Yellow Jackets to 3-2.
ESPN uses the Football Power Index (FPI) as an advanced analytical model to help analyze matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words, “The FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. The ultimate goal of the FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but to correctly predict game and season outcomes. If Las Vegas were to publish a power ranking that they use to set lines, it would probably look very similar to the FPI.”
Before the season, FPI projected Georgia Tech to finish 4-8, and after the win over Georgia State, FPI projected the Yellow Jackets to finish 8-4.
Did this loss change ESPN’s FPI outlook for the season? Let’s take a look at how FPI thinks Georgia Tech will fare in their remaining games.
Game 6 vs. Duke: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia Tech to have a 72.4% chance of winning (4-2, 2-2)
Despite starting the year 4-0 with losses to Louisville and Duke, FPI projects Georgia Tech to win this game, which seems like a comfortable win. Duke’s biggest test of the year will be Saturday against North Carolina, where they’ll be seen on October 5th in Atlanta starting at 8 p.m.
Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-2) to have a 60.2% chance of winning.
Georgia Tech is favored to beat NC State in the FPI after allowing over 50 points in the first half and over 70 points in the game against James Madison. They’re still on the road and it will be a challenge for them, but the Tar Heels don’t look too good right now.
Game 8 vs. Notre Dame: ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame to have an 82.3% chance of winning (5-3, 3-2)
Notre Dame is favored to win this game in the FPI despite their loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame will be a big challenge for Georgia Tech as they boast one of the best defenses in the country and a strong running game. However, Georgia Tech’s biggest weakness is their secondary, with former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard’s passing game still developing.
Game 9 vs. Virginia Tech: ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia Tech (5-4, 3-3) to have a 52% chance of winning this game.
This result may come as a surprise to some given Virginia Tech’s current weakness, but a dominant Miami win this weekend could change that. This game could be important for both teams in terms of bowl appearances. The Hokies are coming off a loss to Vanderbilt and more recently to Rutgers. Their passing game looks terrible, and it’s questionable whether they can exploit Georgia Tech’s weaknesses. I favor Georgia Tech, but FPI thinks otherwise.
Game 10 vs. Miami: ESPN’s FPI predicts Miami has a 78% chance of winning the game (5-5, 3-4)
This will be a tough game to win for the Yellow Jackets. Miami’s passing game has looked elite through four games, and given the state of Georgia Tech’s secondary, it could be a long night for Brent Key’s team. Still, Miami will need to prove they’re consistent, but they should be heavily favored in this one.
Game 11 vs. NC State: ESPN gives Georgia Tech a 78% chance of winning the game (6-5, 4-4)
NC State has been terrible this season and their outlook for this season is not good. What will happen on a Thursday night in November? We’ll see, but the Wolfpack is terrible right now. If they continue this way, Georgia Tech will clinch their second consecutive bowl berth in this game.
Game 12 vs. Georgia: ESPN’s FPI predicts Georgia has a 90% chance of winning (6-6, 4-4)
This is Georgia Tech’s toughest game of the season. The Yellow Jackets had a tough time against the Bulldogs and Georgia Tech is coming off a tough win over Kentucky, but Georgia Tech will be a heavy favorite in Athens on Black Friday.
